Analysis And Optimization For Decisions From Participators In Bus Transit System Based On Game Theory

Satisfying residents' travel demand is one main function of a city.As an important part of urban traffic,well developed bus system can highly improve the efficiency of passenger traffic movement,is good to ecological balance and also has positive effect on social-economy.Bus transit system consists of governor,operator and traveler,correctly describe participators' interaction,accurately judge their decision-making characters and propose optimal schemes can improve bus transit efficiency and promote coordinated development among bus transit and other travel modes system,and have great significance to sustainable development of bus transit and further whole traffic system in the city.Taking evolutionary game of travel mode choice among travelers as a study object,considering the problem that traditional Logit models more or less neglect conformist mentality in travel mode choice,by using ant colony system,establishes a new travel mode choice model based on socialized ant colony system(SACS).This SACS model takes ants' special type of pheromone as an expression of conformity effect,and takes different routes and its length as different travel modes and corresponding utility respectively,so considering both the conformity effect and the dynamic utility of a travel mode.The rationality and feasibility of the new model has been testified through a case study,The SACS model can be applicable for evaluating the influence on travel modes shares by new traffic policy or new trave l mode,compare with Logit model,it has certain advantage.Taking travel demand management of governor as a study object,by applying Stackelberg game theory as a method guide,a demand management instruments combination model is established based on 0-1 programming,it takes maximizing social welfare as a goal,considers constraints of budget and reasonable travel mode split,and corresponding algorithm is designed.Because it relates to new traffic policy,involves SACS as a travel mode choice.Based on a case study of Qiqihar city,suggests that by appropriately raising the charge of bus and private car daily cost,authority can spend more money on infrastructure construction of public transport,which leads to improved travelling environment of bus so make bus system more competitive.The proposed model can contribute to help decision makers make more efficient and accurate demand management policy combination.Taking Stackelberg relationship between governor and operator with respect to bus comfort as a study object,a bus comfort perception model has been established considering both passenger load factor and in-vehicle time,then,by using a bus supply model under the objective of expected loss minimization,analyse s and compares the efficiency of different subsidy types on improving bus comfort.With a numerical example,points out that a combination of the vehicle trip subsidy and an appropriate incentive mechanism subsidy is the most effective method to improve the average passenger load factor and further the bus comfort.Bus lines efficiency evaluation model considering comfort factor is established by using data envelopment analysis(DEA),which can serve as a great support to optimize bus lines' operation.Two parallel bus and metro lines belonging to different operators may lead to supply competition and consequently yield over-supply.Using Cournot game theory,explains the underlying causes of the phenomenon,then by applying Cournot game theory,proposes new operation mode called “integrated-supply,profit-reallocation”.Taking two parallel bus and metro lines in Harbin city,China as a case study,proves that this new operation mode can effectively solve the over-supply problem while satisfying both operators of the two modes,and hence it has practical value,it provides new method to the coordinated development of bus and metro networks.Taking game relationships of the new situation among bus transit participators as research subjects,a travel mode choice evolutionary model considering social interaction is established,and some innovative suggestions are proposed on bus comfort,demand management and operation mode,and there is practical significance for improving theory of bus development in this paper.