Reconstruction And Evolution Analysis Of Holiday Activity Chain Under Integrated Multimodal Travel Information Service

With the expansion of transport infrastructure and improvement of people's living standards in China,holiday travel has become an inevitably demand for people pursuing high quality of life.Combined with the accelerated urbanization,rapid development of information technology,and the popularity of social networks,holiday travel demand is increasing significantly over years.However,holiday traffic congestion becomes more and more serious around large commercial centers and tourist attractions during holidays.The reasons can be summarized as the concentration of travel time,the fixity of activity location distribution,and the characteristics of holiday travel behavior.Holiday travel behavior has different properties,compared with commuting on workdays.It is elastic with more flexibility in time and space,thus holiday destination,departure time,and travel mode have the nature of reconstruction,and holiday travel decisions and activity chain's structure become more diverse and complex.Therefore,it is necessary to study the characteristics of holiday travel behavior and analyze the dynamic reconstruction and evolution mechanism of holiday activity chain,in order to make an appropriate Travel Demand Management(TDM)policy and alleviate traffic congestion in holidays.The development of Intelligent Transportation Systems(ITS)makes people more rely on travel information.People's travel scheduling and decisions are changing under the integrated travel information service and time-varying traffic environment,which lead to the reconstruction and evolution of holiday activity chain.This dissertation takes the Integrated Multimodal Travel Information(IMTI)service as the research condition to compare the IMTI demands in different travel stages,analyze the influencing factors of holiday activity chain,investigate the interaction between time,space and structural characteristics,verify the reconstruction direction,and explore the evolution rules.The main contents of this dissertation include five aspects:(1)Concept definitions and analysis.The concepts of IMTI and activity chain were provided,which were defined and analyzed firstly.Then,the characteristics of activity chain were described from time,space and structure three aspects,and the reconstruction and evolution form of activity chain were demonstrated.Finally,the interaction among internal factors and the influence of external factors were analyzed,and the reconstruction and evolution analytical framework for holiday activity chain was designed.(2)Holiday travel behavior survey under IMTI service.Based on the analysis above,a RP-SP survey was designed to obtain the reconstruction data of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.A life history survey was conducted to capture the evolution process of different life domains of residence,household structure,employment/education,car ownership,holiday activity chain and IMTI usage.On this basis,the influence mechanism of IMTI on holiday activity chain's characteristics were analyzed,and the reconstruction and evolution rules of holiday activity chain under IMTI service were revealed.(3)Interrelationships between portfolio choices of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.Combined the methods of Exploratory Factor Analysis(EFA)and Structural Equation Modeling(SEM)analysis,the RP-SP fusion data was used to investigate the internal decision factors and external influencing factors of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.Six common factors were obtained named as spatiotemporal characteristics,structural characteristics,personal attribute,family property,travel cost and information influence.On this basis,the interaction mechanism among internal factors and the interrelationships between external factors and internal factors were analyzed.Moreover,the impact of pre-trip IMTI and en-route IMTI on holiday activity chain were analyzed and compared.(4)Reconstruction analysis of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.First,using the RP-SP fusion data,a Nested Logit model with activity chain complexity and travel mode selections was developed based on the utility maximization theory,to analyze the influence mechanism of internal factors and external factors on holiday activity chain under IMTI service.Then,a reconstruction model was constructed based on hierarchical decision theory,considering personal attributes,information attributes and historical dependency of activity-travel behavior to reveal the reconstruction direction of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.The results show that the reconstruction of holiday activity chain relies on the past travel behavior habit,and follows relevant directions.(5)Evolution analysis of holiday activity chain under IMTI service.Based on the life-oriented approach,a two-way relationship between holiday activity chain biography and IMTI usage biography over the life course was examined after controlling for the effects of residential,household structure,work/study,and car ownership biographies.Based on the life history survey data,different random-effects ordered logistic models were established considering individual effect,dynamic effect,random effect and lag effect,to investigate the biographical interdependencies from three aspects of intra-domain interdependency,inter-domain interdependency and outer-domain interdependency.The results show that there is an obvious dynamic two-way relationship between holiday activity chain biography and IMTI usage biography.Meanwhile,residential,household structure,work/study and car ownership biographies have significant effects on these two life biographies.Especially,the influence of long-term state dependence for different life domains is much more obvious over the life course.It is expected to provide scientific theoretical basis for policy makers regarding the holiday TDM policy based on the results of this dissertation.