Research On Intercity Passenger Travel Mode Selection Based On Travel Chain

In recent years,with the continuous advancement of China’s urbanization process,urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas have shown a rapid development trend,China’s highspeed railways,expressways and intercity trunk lines have also developed rapidly,car ownership has grown rapidly,and exchanges between cities in urban agglomerations have become increasingly frequent,making intercity passenger travel present complex and diversified characteristics.In order to better grasp the rules of intercity travel behavior of passengers and improve the intercity travel traffic service system,it is important to analyze and study passengers’ traffic demand and travel intention.The thesis aims to analyze the transportation mode selection behavior of intercity passengers based on travel chain,summarizes the relevant concepts and influencing factors of intercity travel,and the basic theory of intercity travel chain.Based on the structural equation model,the psychological factors that affect passengers’ travel decisions are fully considered,and seven latent variables of convenience,comfort,safety,reliability,economy,perceived value and travel intention are selected to construct the structural equation model for intercity passenger transportation mode selection.Combining the nested logit model with the structural equation model fitting results,a three-layer NL model for intercity passenger transportation mode selection based on travel chain was constructed,and the parameter calibration,inspection and solution of the model were carried out.The RP and SP survey methods were briefly introduced,and a questionnaire was designed to carry out the Xi’an-Baoji intercity travel survey,and the travel characteristics and intercity travel chain characteristics of respondents were briefly analyzed.Establish the structural equation model of Xibao intercity transportation service evaluation and solve the analysis;A three-layer NL model was established by using the data of Xibao Intercity Passenger Travel Survey,which solved and analyzed the connecting travel stages and intercity travel stages,and calculated the sharing rate of each intercity travel chain.The results are:(1)The results of the structural equation model show that in the intercity travel stage,passengers pay more attention to economy and safety of general speed railway,high-speed rail/bullet train pay more attention to comfort and reliability,highway passenger shuttle bus pays more attention to economy and convenience,and private car pays more attention to convenience and reliability;The ability of the integrated model to consider psychological factors and latent variables is better to explain.(2)The results of the mixed choice NL model show that income,occupation,travel time and cost,expense source,and private car ownership have significant impacts on the mode decision-making in the three stages of the intercity travel chain,and in addition,the comfort,safety and economy of the transportation mode are also significant influencing factors of travel decision-making in the intercity travel stage.(3)The prediction results of the sharing rate show that in the Xibao intercity travel stage,78.57% of passengers choose railway travel,of which the proportion of high-speed rail/bullet train is higher than that of general speed train;In the intercity travel chain at both ends of the front and back travel stage,passenger travel mode selection are mainly public transportation,Xi’an’s city travel mode is mainly subway,Baoji city travel mode is mainly walking and bus,with the continuous improvement of high-speed rail network and the rapid development of intercity railway,the future rail transit in the intercity travel stage sharing rate will be further improved,strengthen the function of transportation hub.