Quantitative Evaluation Methods Of Private Capital Investment In Public Transportation

The marketization experiences of public transportation all over the world show that the way out of the dilemma for public transportation is to establish competition between public and private sectors,and introduce private capital investment in public transportation industry.Developing public transportation through private capital investment has important social significance and practical significance,especially for promoting sustainable development of public transportation,improving the operation efficiency of public transportation system,as well as protecting public transportation property and residents travel demand.After 2010,the Chinese governments at all levels issued plenty of documents in order to encourage private capital investment in infrastructure construction,maintenance and operations of several industries which contain public transportation industry,and advocated the public-private partnership model.Facing the current policy environment which encourages private capital investment in public transportation and previous failures of private capital investment in public transportation,there are two unavoidable questions for managers and researchers:(Ⅰ)How to quantitatively analyze the feasibility of private capital investment in public transportation,and improve the success rate of private capital investment in public transportation so as to promote the policy implementation?(Ⅱ)What are the impacts of private capital investment in public transportation? Are the impacts positive or negative and how to describe the impacts quantitatively?To answer the above questions,we need to understand the previous development of private capital investment in public transportation,collect the analysis methods and tools of private capital investment in public transportation,and improve the disadvantages.Based on the existed research limitations and the above questions,we researched the quantitative analysis problem of private capital investment in public transportation,discussed the quantitative analysis methods of private capital investment in public transportation,researched the feasibility and impacts of private capital investment,and gave some corresponding suggestions.This paper has done the following research:Ⅰ.The advantages and disadvantages were summarized and previous research limitations were pointed out based on the literature review about the development of private capital investment in public transportation,the private capital investment model,quantitative evaluation methods and related research topics.Ⅱ.Based on the failure experience of private capital investment in public transportation due to unsustainable finance,an investment model considering passenger value was proposed.The investment model aims to improve the private sector’s revenue and increase the public transport’s attraction through returning part of the profits to passengers.This paper mainly focuses on the cash flow income in the passengers’ public transport card account.The cash flow income changes from bank savings interest to investment returns which will improve the revenue of private sector.At the same time,part of the cash flow income is returned to passengers,which will attract more travellers to travel by public transport.Then,a virtuous circle is formed.Additionally,passengers accumulate a huge potential customer base for payment platform,and will supply the payment platform unlimited business opportunities.Under the information age,there will be more broad prospects for development of private capital investment in public transportation.Based on the finance analysis,the proposed investment model improves the profits of private sectors and passengers;it should be more sustainable than traditional investment model in theory.Ⅲ.In order to study the quantitative evaluation methods of private capital investment in public transportation,Jinan city was taken as an example to collect the basic data,including residents travel data,public transportation operation data,financial data and subsidies data of public transportation.The feasibility of data acquisition provides a data support for the quantitative model construction and impacts evaluation of private capital investment in public transportation,also improve the portability of the quantitative analysis model.Ⅳ.Considering its own characteristics of public transportation system,we used bi-level programming model(BLPM)to research the static evaluation method of private capital investment in public transportation,and discussed the BLPM properties and solution algorithm.The critical values of key parameters were found via case study.The lease fee for private sector should not be more than 225 yuan/day;The average passenger travel demand should not be less than 200 trips/hour during the operation period;The return rate for passengers should not exceed 0.9.The proposed investment model considering passenger value increase the welfare of public transport system by 5.5%,and is superior to the traditional investment model.The proposed investment model is more conductive to the sustainable development of public transport,and it should be encouraged.Additionally,the key parameters are robust for model solutions.The BLPM model and solution algorithm provide a basis for further research,and provide a quantitative evaluation tool for quantitatively analyzing the impacts of private capital investment in public transportation.Ⅴ.Evolutionary game(EG)theory was used as a dynamic evaluation method of private capital investment in public transportation.EG is based on bounded rationality of decision makers,then it is more accordance with the reality.An EGM of private capital investment in public transportation was established,the EGM properties and solution algorithm were discussed.Case study results show that the investment model considering passenger value is evolutionarily stable,and is superior to the traditional investment model.Additionally,the more operators who choose passenger value strategy initially,the more rapidly public transport optimizes operation strategies.The results provide a theoretical basis for managers to find evolutionary stable strategy of private capital investment in public transportation,design more efficient investment contracts,and reduce the investment risk and improve the success rate of private capital investment in public transportation.Ⅵ.Finally,the system dynamics(SD)was used to establish a systematic evaluation model of private capital investment in public transportation.SD model provides a more comprehensive perspective to evaluate the environmental effects of private capital investment in public transportation,and it is conductive for decision-makers to evaluate the private capital investment model systematically.From the simulation results of a public transit fleet of Jinan public traffic company in a period of 100 months,one can see the specific contribution of private capital investment in public transport on energy savings and emission reductions.The passenger value model proposed in chapter IV is superior to the traditional investment model and without private capital investment in the aspect of energy saving and environment protection.The passenger value model should be encouraged.The research in this chapter lays the foundation for systematically analyzing the impacts of private capital investment in public transportation.The SD model is an effective complement to existing quantitative evaluation tools;it helps decision makers to formulate a more scientific policy for private capital investment in public transportation.This paper focuses on the quantitative evaluation problem of private capital investment in public transportation,respectively discusses the static,dynamic and systematic evaluation methods of private capital investment based on bi-level programming theory,evolutionary game theory and system dynamic theory.The paper also proposes a private capital investment model considering passenger value,analyzes the impacts of private capital investment and finds the critical values of key parameters according to the case study of Jinan public transport and quantitative evaluation models constructed in the paper.Results show that the proposed investment model considering passenger value is benefit to the total welfare of public transportation system,has evolutionarily stable characteristics and does benefit to energy consumptions and emissions of public transportation system.The established models are effective supplements to the existed evaluation methods of private capital investment in public transportation.The researches results provide theoretical tools for quantitatively analyze the feasibility and effects of private capital investment in public transportation;it has important social significance and practical significance for attracting private capital investment in public transportation and promoting sustainable development of public transportation.