Research On Indentification,measurement And Early Warning Of Financing Risk In Cultural Enterprises

The cultural enterprises in our country have distinct cultural and economic characteristics,it also bears the important task of meeting the people's spiritual and cultural needs while participating in economic construction.And now it is a powerful motivator to optimize the layout of the economy,adjust the economic structure and change the way of development.With the deepening of the reform of the cultural system,the status of economic development is becoming more and more important,and has become a new engine of economic development.It has become a new engine of economic development in the continuous deepening of the cultural system reform with an increasingly important role in economic development.The integration of culture and capital is representing the general trend,and it is the only way for the development of social development and the reform of cultural system.It is not only a move to promote the reform of the financing structure,but also a measurement to improve the operational efficiency of cultural assets by managing and controlling the financing risk of cultural enterprises.Accordingly,cultural enterprises and capital are deeply integrated under the following measurements: identify the influencing factors of financing risk in cultural enterprises timely,measure the level of financing risk accurately,establish a unified warning and management system.It benefits to prevent and control enterprises' financial risk,enhance capital operation efficiency,create a safe and stable environment for ensuring a virtuous cycle of enterprise capital operation.Moreover,theoretical basis is provided for enterprise risk management and internal control system construction and the theory study of risk management get enrich and perfect.Intangible assets are regarded as the core competitiveness in cultural enterprises such as intellectual property,copyright and so on.But once capital is put in production they can get continuous gains.However,there are troubles and uncertainty to assessment intangible assets' value and profit.The financing of cultural enterprise activities are faced with huge risks.We chose financing risk's identification,measurement and warning of enterprise culture as the research object in the paper.Meanwhile,this paper attempts to achieve the following purposes using knowledge and research of management and economics: to explore and identify macro and micro influence factors with the empirical model,to measure and compare the size of culture enterprises' financing risk,and establish early-warning system which fit to the characteristics of culture industry,to put forward suggestions combined with the status quo and problems in cultural corporate.This paper begins with introducing the background of the importance and necessity.It emphasizes the importance of financing risk management in cultural enterprises.On the basis of clarifying the purpose and significance,the dissertation review and comment the research about financing risk management at home and abroad.It also elaborates the theoretical basis of financing risk management.According to the process of risk management such as risk identification,risk measurement,risk early warning and control,etc.,it is necessary to identify the factors that affect the financing risk combining qualitative analysis with quantitative research.Then the structural equation model is constructed respectively to identify the impact of financing risk from the macro and micro aspect.The results showed that the financing risk factors are sorted by financing scale,financing cost,financing structure and ratio of intangible assets accounted for the total assets according to the importance degree,and the indirect influencing factors are investment risk,management risk,operational risk,market risk and policy risk in descending order.Subsequently,based on the weight of the SEM,the financing risk is measured from the vertical and horizontal.In this paper,the sample data is a total of five years from 2010 to 2014 in the listed enterprises.Annual financing risk is measured in different years.Also,the research selects 2015 as a point in time to measure all listed cultural companies' financing risk.Results showed that the annual financing risk is fluctuations in the state with small fluctuation amplitude.The financing risk seems like downward trend;the financing risk is not balanced in 2015,but 76.66% of the corporate financing risks are small and can be ignored.Then construct cultural enterprises financing risk warning index system from the purpose,function and structure of relations.Set up finance risk early-warning simulation model with Vensim PLE based on the theory of system,determine threshold of risk pre warning index and the risk level,carry on the empirical analysis of financing risk change trend in 2000-2014.The study predicts financing risk will appear to rise slightly in 2015.The results show that the simulation model of financing risk early warning can more accurately reflect the actual changes trend of the enterprise's financing risk.Finally,this paper analysis the management situation of financing risk considered of management system,management institution,management process and management style.And then suggestions are put forward to strengthen financing risk management of cultural corporate.The research finds that there are still some defects in the financial risk management of cultural enterprises in current.At the same time,control system is a preliminary to build,management system is gradually perfected,the management process has become increasingly standardized,and management pattern has been continuously innovated.Therefore,it is necessary to improve and perfect several measures to strengthen the financial risk management,which includes construction of function structure,management system,technology and support services.There are three points of innovation in this paper: first,the structural equation model has been used to identify the influencing factors of financing risk in cultural enterprises objectively and comprehensively;second,build the financing risk measurement and early warning index system systematically with cultural characteristics;third,the system is simulated with system dynamics model for early-warning of financing risk in cultural enterprises,which combines natural sciences and Humanities and social science.