Study On Principle And Methodology Of Crisis Transformation

China is in a critical period of building a harmonious society and Chinese dream. The possibility of social crises increases in all aspects, which will bring a challenge to the government's management ability and the public's normal life. In the past years, the situation of "abnormal" has gradually transformed into "normal". Crisis involves risks, but also contains opportunities. Successful handling of the crisis will transform the crisis into opportunity. Otherwise, the failure of treatment will convert the crisis into danger or disaster.Crisis contains many nonlinear factors in its life cycle. Early-warning of crisis is difficult to achieve through a linear model. In order to establish a new methodology on transforming crisis and be facing with the arrival of the "risk society", it is extremely necessary to upgrade crisis management system. Discovery and nurture of potential chance of success, is the essence of the crisis transformation. Review of domestic and international research, obviously there is lack of systematic and targeted research for transforming the crisis. This dissertation intends to adopt crisis management, theory and methods of complex networks and the opportunity to discover and to explore new ideas for crisis management. Then the thoughts and corresponding measures of crisis transformation have been put forward in this dissertation. This dissertation is divided into eight parts as follows:Chapter 1 is the research background, purpose and meaning, analysis and a brief review of current research are discussed. Chapter 2 analyses the domestic and abroad ideas of crisis the transformation and typical crisis cases. A preliminary theoretical framework for crisis transformation is constructed in this chapter. Chapter 3 constructs crisis ‘fame' scenario space. A crisis decision-making scenario is constructed. Analysis of the types and characteristics of hazardous scenarios and chance scenario types and characteristics, and related crisis situations, including crisis scenario mapping, conversion of the conceptual model of the crisis have been accomplished in this chapter. Chapter 4 presents the relevant quantitative methods crisis into the scene. In detail, there are analysis of the crisis and the information knowledge representation framework of crisis scenario, and the establishment of a crisis scenario knowledge element on the basis of a crisis scenario ‘fame' space quantization method. Chapter 5 analyzes the discovery crisis into opportunity. The opportunity to discover the characteristics of the opportunity to find case-based reasoning technology to create conditions for the chance discovery method based on Bayesian network to establish crisis into a crisis simulation conversion path are presented. Chapter 6 elaborates path mining methods on crisis using Bayesian network and systematic evaluation on the path. Chapter 7 is the empirical analysis. For simulation of Lenovo's acquisition of IBM PC scenarios, crisis transformation theory and methodology are verified. The conclusions are summarized and the research prospects are put forward in Chapter 8.This innovations include(1) Constructing a new theoretical system of crisis transform, integrating crisis management, scenario analysis, complex networks, and the traditional theory of crisis management into focusing on the transformation of ideas and models in crisis response. Building a new theoretical system of crisis transformation;(2) Suggesting a new model on maximizing the opportunity effectiveness of crisis transformation. Supported by the method of creating the conditions, the opportunity will be dig to explore feasible paths;(3) Establishing the methodology system of crisis transform on the scenario construction- chance discovery- path optimization to explore the rules of crisis evolution and transformation, so that we can develop the crisis management system further.