Research On The Model Of Unconventional Urban Garbage Crisis Transformation

Since 1981,waste output increase at a rate of 8% to 10% each year,Garbage disposal capacity and technology fall behind waste output,which make the number of crisis gradually increased.At present,most of these studies focus on mechanism and legal system,lack of research from the perspective of crisis management.According to the characteristics of unconventional urban garbage crisis,it is difficult to handle with conventional methods.Therefore,in order to reduce the probability of crisis,this paper seeks coping ways of crisis from the perspective of crisis management based on the 2016 National Social Science Fund Project of Principles and Methods for Urban Rubbish Crisis Transformation.By analyzing the mechanism of urban garbage crisis,using knowledge element to describe the evolution process of crisis,and using quantitative reasoning of Bayesian network to construct system of urban garbage crisis transformation,which include opportunity point,scenario deduction and risk control sequence.Crisis management model passes from forecast-response to scenarioresponse,providing assistance in response to unconventional urban garbage crisis.The main contents and research results of this paper are following:Firstly,combining the literature on urban waste management and public crisis management,defining the unconventional urban garbage crisis and exploring the evolution of unconventional urban garbage crisis,which lay the foundation for construct scenario evolution model.Secondly,according to the literature at home and aboard,define unconventional urban garbage crisis scenarios,and analyze crisis elements and structures.Using knowledge element represent scenario elements,which include objective things system,crisis event and emergency management activity.Based on this,the crisis evolving network model of attribute-knowledge element-scenario-event is set up to analyze the nature of unconventional urban garbage crisis from a micro-medium-macro perspective.Then,the attribute sets of scenario knowledge network divide into input,state and output elements from the perspective of system theory based on the evolution network model of crisis scenarios.Relying on the relationship between attributes and domain expert knowledge to construct the input-state-output three-layer Bayesian network of crisis scenarios by the improved D-S theory synthesis rule.Using Bayesian inference technology to identify opportunities beforehand.Forward reasoning for scenario seduction to control the development of crisis scenario.Afterwards,depending on the mutual information to find key points that affect the state of crisis scenario changes and construct key risk control sequences.Finally,take the landslide of landfill as an example,we establish its evolution network model of crisis scenarios and Bayesian network model of crisis scenarios to quantitative reasoning and provide a reference for dealing with landslide crisis.This paper studies the problem of unconventional urban garbage crisis from the perspective of crisis management,which not only provides a reference for solving the problem of unconventional urban garbage crisis,but also provides theoretical support for decision makers to formulate emergency plans.