A Dynamic Econometrics Research On The Influence Of Sport Industry On Economic Growth

The impact of sports industry development on economic growth has been a focus among the scholars, the public and the relevant departments for a long time. However, subjected to statistics restrictions, the early research in sport economics can only focus on the theoretical and practical description, and there is little literature making a quantitative research from the angle of dynamic measurement and nonlinear correlation mechanism. Actually, two reasons contribute to the result, on the one hand, sports statistics in China started relatively late, not until 2000, we can not see the total data of quarterly frequency anywhere, and up to now, the itemized data (mainly refer to provincial data) still can not be seen anywhere either; on the other hand, the facts that sports industry still belongs to the emerging industry are not changed, especially in the early 2000's, the proportion of sport industry to GDP is very low, the government and the scholars can not measure the sports industry development from the perspective of total contribution and the influence on economic growth. However, with the success of the 2008 Olympic Games, China has begun to participate in undertaking the international A server-side event frequently, and with the improvement of per capita revenue, The public has begun to increasingly focus on the quality of life and healthy consumption. The continuous growth of the two sides makes sports industry output proportion to GDP increase day by day, which has reached percentile magnitude recently, becoming an important factor in national economic accounting during the "New Normal".As to the significant change in research background, this article use sports industry consumption, investment and government spending data, taking the combination of macro and meso data to explore the dynamic influential mechanism of sports industry development on economic growth, and finally come to the following parts of conclusions:First, in terms of sports industry development as a whole, it has expanded a lot in recent 10 years. Although the emergence of the "New Normal" makes all the industries suffer from a big downward pressure, the sports industry as a representative of the strategic emerging industries can still develop in an adverse situation. Nowadays, the growth rate of sport industry is still over 10 percent, which indicates the rapid development momentum of sport industry has not changed. In addition, from the angle of gross, as the growth rate of sport industry is much higher than economic growth rate, the output value of it has reached a considerable scale and it has been an important factor of economic growth.Later on, we make some separate research on the pulling effect of sport consumption, sport investment and sport expenditures. Among these, we first make a test on the pulling effect of sport expenditures using a VAR model. The results show that it has no immediate impact on economic growth, but can promote economic growth through the development of sport undertakings. Moreover, the result of Granger test show that when considering two variables, only sport expenditures to economic growth and economic growth to sport undertakings can work well, and when considering all the variables as a whole, they can impact each other prominently, which indicates the changes of them have a synergy effect.However, the emergence of the "Olympic Games", the "Subprime Crisis" and the "New Normal" has led to a frequent change in business cycle, and sport industry will be influenced by its own properties. These two factors determine that sport industry consumptions with great flexibility are not necessities. Therefore, we use a non-linear MS-VAR model to test the non-linear relationship between sport industry consumption and economic growth. The results show that sport industry consumption will contribute to economic growth in different regime, which indicate that with the development of sport industry, the influence of sport industry consumption on economic growth has become more obvious. No matter in the regime with higher volatility or with lower volatility, the sport industry consumption can stimulate economic growth prominently, the only difference is effect. All the results show that though sport industry consumption hasn't been necessity yet, it's has a trend to be the necessity, which deserves a full attention.Finally, as the proportion of investment declines gradually, the investment in sport industry may also change. Therefore, we use a TVP-VAR model to test how the changes in different kinds of investment in sport industry affect economic growth. The results show that all kinds of investment may contribute to economic growth except building investment and its expansion. Hence sport authorities should pay more attention to the stage characters of sport industries, devote to the national sport development and insist on the goal of a powerful sport country, develop international A server-side event, so that stimulate the economic growth in the "New Normal" from the angle of quality promotion.