| Since the implementation of reform and opening-up policy,China's economy develops rapidly,and its per capita income rises year by year.However,various economic and social problems gradually appear,especially the increasing gaps in income levels.At the same time,China's birth rate has changed dramatically since the implementation of family planning policy—from 3.3%in 1970,suddenly dropped to 1.8%in 1980,and kept stable with a slight drop since then.Although the fertility rate of our country remains on a low level on the whole,there exists different reproductive behaviors for families in different income levels.Despite the exogenous constraints of family planning,we can still often observed this phenomenon:The poorer the rural region is,the more severe the disapproved birth phenomena will be.For middle-income families,their desire for an additional child is small.For the very rich families,there also exists disapproved birth phenomena,but is not common.So,is it a kind of accident phenomenon,or an inevitable result because of the different reproductive behaviors among different income groups?Foreign scholars have done some related research on this topic.However,most of them are using macroeconomic analysis method and data to analyze the longitudinal relationships between residents' total income level and their fertility,rather than doing the horizontal comparative analysis on the differences of reproductive behaviors among different income groups.As for the research of foreign micro-population economics,most of them focus on the analysis of median household reproductive behaviors,such as the influence of social structure,parents' educational level and gender preference on their reproductive behaviors,but pay less attention to the relationships between the change of family income and its impact on their reproductive behaviors.But different from abroad,Chinese middle class households only take a relatively small proportion,and can not represent the overall characteristics of the local residents.Besides,Chinese residents of different income groups have significant differences in the cost of living and education,gender preference and the time value,such differences will inevitably affect their reproductive behaviors.However,most research of domestic population economics are in accordance with the existing theoretical model and research path of the west,and the analysis on different reproductive behaviors among different income groups almost remains blank.It is of great significance to study the fertility differences among residents of different income classes in China.With the development of market economy,the income gap of Chinese residents has obviously expanded,and the reproductive behaviors and fertility structure of residents of different income groups are also different.Although the difference is controlled to a certain extent due to the exogenous control of the policy,the endogenous mechanism that leads to the differences still exists and will gradually appear with the adjustment of the family planning policy in recent years.In 2016,China's "universal two children" policy officially landed,which is another large population policy adjustment after the party's Eighth Plenary Session decided to implement the "unilateral single child can have two children" policy in 2013.In the environment of such dynamic policy adjustment,in order to help us better predict the effect of policy adjustment on China's population situation,population structure and the residents' reproductive behaviors,we need to analyze the differentiated reproductive behavior and its internal mechanisms of different income groups.The differentiated fertility behaviors of different income groups has a great impact on China's income distribution pattern,population structure,human capital accumulation and government budget.So analyzing the differences of reproductive behaviors among residents of different income classes is of great significance for us to understand the current situation of it and to guide the formulation of childbearing policy and the implementation of its supporting measures.Therefore,in this field,it is necessary to supplement the relevant theories and data.The research of this paper can be divided into three parts:Firstly,the theoretical and realistic basis part.This part introduces the theoretical basis of the paper-Becker's quality and quantity substitution theory,combs and summarizes the relevant domestic and foreign literature,and carries on the research on the family planning policy and the reproductive behaviors of the residents.Through the above analysis,this part provides a theoretical and realistic basis for the follow-up study.Secondly,the model constructing and assuming part.This part improves Becker's benchmark model.Considering the particularity of the family planning policy in China,the improved model take the policy as household reproductive costs and introduce it into the formula.By distinguishing between children within and out of the plan,this part analyzes the relationship between family's income and the quality and quantity of its children in the presence of a family planning policy.On the basis of the above analysis,the model is made dynamic and the utility function is embodied to construct the three-stage OLG model to further analyze the relationship between child's quality,quantity and household's income.Through analyzing the embodied utility function,this part does a more in-depth analysis on the relationship between family income and the substitution elasticity of child's quality and quantity.Finally,based on the previous analysis,this part puts forward two theoretical hypotheses and constructs the corresponding statistical indicators.Through the improvement,derivation and further analysis of the model,this part lays the foundation for the follow-up empirical analysis.The third part,empirical analysis part.Based on the two hypotheses presented above,this section collects both macroscopic and microscopic data for analysis.On the macroscopic side,the paper briefly analyzes the relationship between average household population and household income in urban and rural areas according to the relevant group data of China Statistical Yearbook,which lays the foundation for the follow-up microscopic analysis.Analysis based on microscopic data is the emphasis,which collects the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)data,and expand its analysis from both the average and the overall level:On the average,in order to enhance the objectivity and persuasiveness of the empirical results,two methods are adopted to divide the income stratum-the dividing method according to the relevant data of the China Statistical Yearbook and the method according to the unknown breakpoints test;On the overall,by drawing the box plot about the number and education years of children from families of different income,the research tries to be more comprehensive and intuitive.Based on the principle of household utility maximization,this paper attempts to analyze the differences in the quality and quantity of children in different income classes in China from the perspective of micro-population economics theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1.In considering the implementation of family planning policy in China,the number of children in the family is negatively related to their income level.The poorer the family is,the stronger its desire to have more children.At the same time,by analyzing the characteristics of the income elasticity of the number and quality of children,this paper finds that,on one hand,comparing with rich families,the change of income is more significant for the number of children of low-income families,especially middle-income families.This means that in the case of a certain percentage increase in income,the decreasing proportion of the number of children in middle-income families is greater than the other income groups.On the other hand,the quality of children is positively related to household income levels,which means that richer families tend to improve the child's education level.It is in line with our general understanding and have some reference value for the follow-up recommendations.2.Except for the top-rich families,there is still a general alternative relationship between the quality and the quantity of children under the family planning policy in China,and the lower the household income,the stronger the substitution relationship is.This conclusion is particularly applicable to rural families.3.Parents' demand for the number of children is becoming more and more sensitive to the changes of household income year by year.Which means the impact of household income on the number of children in the family is increasing.It shows that the impact of income on the reproductive behavior of residents should be taken seriously.Based on the above conclusions,the main policy implications of this paper are as follows:1.Developing the economy and raising the income level of the residents,especially the rural residents.In view of the above conclusions,we believe that raising the income level especially the income level of rural households can be used as an auxiliary means of family planning,and it may be helpful in voluntary family planning and controlling disapproved birth phenomenon.At the same time,the increase in income is also conducive to substitute the quality of children for the number of children in rural households,which will help to improve their education investment in children,and to promote the accumulation of human capital.Therefore,it is necessary to actively explore the ways to improve the income of rural households,and reduce the population below the middle income,which is helpful to improve the population structure and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.2.Providing more preferential educational policies or educational subsidies to low-income groups.The analysis of this paper found that in consideration of the family planning policy,except for the richest families,there was a significant substitution relationship between the quality and quantity of children in all of the income groups.Our government should make full use of this alternative relationship,take appropriate measures to reduce the quality shadow price of children to guide the family,especially the low-income families,to change their consumer preferences from the number of children to the quality of children.3.With the "universal two children" policy,implementing differentiated incentives and punitive measures in different income groups.Through the above analysis,we found that if we continue to relax the family planning policy,the difference in fertility behaviors of different income groups may make the policies have differentiated effects:those poorer will tend to have more children than the richer,and because of the existence of alternative relationships between the quality and quantity of children in the family,and the lower the income,the stronger the substitution will be,especially for the rural low-income families.It will further reduce the household desire to improve the quality of the children-especially for the rural low-income families,thereby inhibiting their human capital accumulation,and let them fall into the "low-income trap",further widening the income gap between income groups,triggering more economic and social problems.Therefore,in promoting the implementation of the "universal two children" policy,in order to prevent the deterioration of population structure and the further expanding of income gap,our government should pay more attention to reasonably guiding the reproductive behaviors of different income groups.4.In the context of large income gap,differences in fertility behavior may have a certain negative impact on the economy and society,which need the government to pay close attention to and take active measures. |
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