Research On Population Changes And Economic Effects Of China's Fertility Policy Adjustment

In the past thirty years,China's economy has maintained a sustained and stable growth trend,and become a miracle in the history of world economic development.During this period,China has implemented a strict family planning policy,and the result is low child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio. But from the beginning of 2012, the absolute number of China's labor force decreased for the first time, and continued until 2015, some experts and scholars interpret this behavior as China's demographic dividend inflection point. Based on this,China's government made the corresponding adjustment about policy of family population. At the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in October 2015, China decided to implement a comprehensive two children's population policy, the eligible families could have two children, and the policy would begin in January 1,2016. Comprehensive two child policy has an important role in promoting China's economic stability and sustainable development. Under the background of demographic dividend inflection point and universal two-child policy, the study of economic effects of population fertility policy has important theoretical and practical significance to promote the stable and sustainable development of China's economy.Based on the analysis of fertility policy and demographic structure systematically,learnt from foreign research results, referenced the 2013 census data of China, this dissertation calculated the fertility intentions after the implementation of the two child policy. By building Leslie model, this dissertation forecasted the population size and structure before and after 2050. Based on forecast data, analysis the labor supply effect,consumption effect and economic growth effect respectively by theoretical model and empirical model. According to the analysis results, this paper discusses the countermeasures to promote the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy.This dissertation consists of six parts:The first part includes four chapters: literature review, related theories and the evolution of the birth policy. This part introduces the background and significance of the research, elaborates the research mentality and the research method, points out the innovation and deficiency of the article, combines the domestic and home documents,introduces the theory of population economics, and analysis the characteristics of China's fertility policy adjustment.The second part mainly introduces the population structure change after the adjustment of population fertility policy. Based on the fertility intention survey data of 2013 from China population and Development Research Center, calculated the total fertility rate of the next three years after the implementation of a comprehensive two child policy and the results were 2.291?2.252 and 2.244?Based on that, this dissertation forecast the population and population structure before and after the implementation of the two child policy by Leslie population prediction model, and divided into high,medium and low fertility wishes three scenarios in the process of policy implementation.The third part mainly introduces the labor supply effect of fertility policy adjustment. First, this chapter analyzed the present situation of labor supply from scale of labor force and labor participation rate. Second, this chapter analyzed the labor supply effect of population structure change by building panel model. Third, this chapter analyzed the labor supply effect of the two child policy with the forecast population data of the fifth chapter.The fourth part mainly introduces the consumption effect of fertility policy adjustment. Using ordinary family as the research object, based on the 2000 questionnaire data, this chapter analyzed the impact of the implementation of the two child policy on household consumption expenditure by building ELES, and put forward effective suggestions on the adjustment of fertility policy.The fifth part mainly introduces the economic growth effect of fertility policy adjustment. This chapter built VAR with GDP, Fixed assets, labor and dependency ratio and the forecast population data of the fifth chapter, and analyzed the economic growth effect after the implementation of the two child policy. Results show the implementation of the two child policy has a small negative impact on economic growth in the short term,and has a positive impact on economic growth in the medium and long term.The sixth part is conclusions and suggestions. Based on the population forecasting results and empirical results above, this chapter put forward reasonable and effective countermeasures to ensure the smooth implementation of the two child policy.There are three innovations of this paper: Firstly, reasonable investigation program is designed to speculate fertility will after the fertility policy impact. Secondly, construct a population forecasting Leslie-model based on our national conditions, to predict population in three different fertility willing conditions. Thirdly construct ELES-model,panel data regression model and the VAR model to test the consumption effect, labor supply effect, and economic growth effect after the shift of fertility policy.In this paper, data research method, population forecasting method and quantitative analysis method are used to study the relevant issues,the conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the fertility rate of the comprehensive two-child policy is estim ated, then add it with the fertility rate before the implementation of the policy, the new feitility rate we get is 2.291, 2.252 and 2.224 in the next three years (2016-2018). After the implementation of the policy, the peak population will be post poned from 2030 to 2035, and the population number will increase from 1.46 billion to 1.51 billion. Secondly, the implementation of comprehensive two-child policy will increase the household consumption of the residents, because of the higher level of income and a reasonable family consumption structure, fertility rate will not be reduced. Thirdly, in short term, the supply of labor will not increase for the implementation of comprehensive two-child policy, but the burden of social child support will increase significantly; in medium and long term, the labor supply will show an upward trend, at the same time, social child support burden will reduce. Fourthly, the comprehensive two-child policy bring economic growth a cert ain degree of negative impact in the short term, but in long-term there will be a positive impact. In general, the economic effects of China's population fertility policy adjustment are positive.