The Analysis Of Population Change And Economic Effect Under The Adjustment Of Xinjiang Fertility Policy

In recent years,China's persistently low birth rate has caused increasingly severe population problems,which has threatened China's future population development and economic growth.Under this background,the central government proposed the“two-child” policy in October 2015.In the past 30 years,Xinjiang's economy has continued to grow steadily.The two indicators of child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio are at a relatively low level.However,in recent years,the aging of Xinjiang and the aging of the city,the population of southern Xinjiang and the rural population have become increasingly problematic.The more serious the population and economic development in the region are not coordinated.In light of the national adjustment of the birth control policy,Xinjiang's birth control policy has also been adjusted accordingly.This paper is based on the forecast of the population change trend after the adjustment of Xinjiang's fertility policy,and analyzes the population changes to the economy.Impact.First of all,it elaborates on the mechanism of birth control policy affecting population and economy.From a theoretical point of view,it analyzes how birth control policy affects the fertility level,population size and population structure,and then affects labor supply and economic growth.Secondly,based on the 2010 Xinjiang Census,based on data from cities,towns,villages,and northern and southern Xinjiang,PADIS-INT software was used to forecast Xinjiang population and three scenarios were set up to forecast population size,age structure,and labor force data in Xinjiang.Clarify population changes under the influence of different policies.Finally,combining the actual data from 1990-2016 in Xinjiang,a labor supply model and an economic growth model were constructed.The impact of the population factors under the influence of the birth control policy adjustment on labor supply and economic growth was empirically studied,and the future was analyzed based on the population forecast data.The Influence of Labor Supply Change and Population Change on Economic Growth in.It was concluded that policy adjustments have led to a decline in the fertility rate insouthern Xinjiang and an increase in the fertility rate in northern Xinjiang,which has inhibited the rapid growth of population in southern Xinjiang and promoted the population growth in northern Xinjiang;the labor supply quantity has declined after adjustment of policies to a certain extent.It relieved the pressure from the government to relocate employment,especially in southern Xinjiang and rural areas.It has provided time and space for diverting employment in these areas,raised the level of labor supply in northern Xinjiang and the city,eased the shortage of labor in northern Xinjiang and the city,and alleviated the aging population.The comprehensive impact of the population on economic growth after the adjustment of the birth control policy is positive both in the short and long term.Some policy recommendations were put forward: In order to achieve a stable and sustainable development of Xinjiang's economy,the government should make further adjustments to the birth control policy,strictly implement the family planning policy,and control the out-of-plan childbirth.It is necessary to timely improve the construction of related supporting facilities along with the adjustment of the birth policy.We must also focus on solving the problem of unbalanced development of labor supply in Xinjiang and take measures to guide the transfer of surplus labor in rural and southern Xinjiang.At the same time,in order to give full play to the positive effects of population on the economy and realize the “two-pronged approach” of demographic quality dividends and population bonuses to promote rapid economic development in Xinjiang,we should increase investment in human capital,improve the quality of the population,and increase the speed of human capital accumulation.