A Study On The Effect Of Delayed Retirement Policy And Fertility Policy Adjustment

In order to cope with the impact of population aging on China's economy and society,China has adjusted the birth policy and retirement policy,adjusted the birth policy and delayed retirement policy will affect urban worker basic old-age pension.In this paper,through the perspective of personal pension wealth and pension fund balance,it is of great significance to verify the effect of childbearing policy adjustment and delayed retirement on the basic old-age insurance of urban workers in China.By forecasting the results of the policy operation,we can provide a useful reference for the improvement of the current fertility policy and the formulation of the delayed retirement policy,and the early warning and precautionary measures of the adverse consequences of the policy operation.The main body of this paper is divided into three parts.First of all,we construct the population forecasting model to predict the change of the urban population in China from 2016 to 2060.At the same time,referring to the plan of deferred retirement at home and abroad,Forecasting the Change of Urban Labor Population and Retirement Population in 2016-2060 by Comprehensive Population Forecasting Data and Delayed Retirement Plan.Then,the effect of delayed retirement on the personal pension wealth of the insured workers is studied by establishing the actuarial model of the basic pension insurance balance of urban workers.The effect of delayed retirement on personal pension wealth mainly derives from personal pension monthly income,pension net pension transfer,the investment recovery period of pensions and the pension replacement rate.Finally,based on the urban population forecast data and the impact of delayed retirement on the wealth of individual pension,the author establishes the models of the basic pension insurance balance model of urban workers,and introduces the two variables of delaying retirement and changing birth policy,observing the adjustment of childbearing policy and delaying retirem to urban workers' basic endowment insurance fund balance forentshort term and long term impact.Observing the impact of policy changes on the pensio ns of three different groups of "old","middle-aged" and "new",and further analysis of fertility policy adjustment and delayed retirement to alleviate the basic pension insurance to pay the crisis of their contribution.Based on the above three parts,we can draw the following conclusions:(1)The policy of adjusting fertility and delaying retirement will greatly increase the working age population and reduce the retired population;(2)Delayed retirement policy can significantly affect the pension wealth of insured workers.Delayed retirement policy can significantly increase the monthly pensions of men and women.The increase in pension income of women due to delayed retirement is significantly greater than male;The net transfer of male pension by the impact of delayed retirement pension relative to the amount of net transfer of women by the impact of delayed retirement is relatively small,deferred retirement policy objectively narrowed the gap between male and female net pension transfer;Delayed retirement lead to the risk of female pension recovery gradually convergence with men,men and women in the pension to gradually achieve the "equal pay for equal work";Delayed retirement leads to increased pension replacement rates for both men and women,and contributes to the improvement of the standard of living of retirees.(3)The adjustment of birth policy and retirement policy will have a great impact on the balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers,and the adjustment of birth policy and retirement policy will have superimposed effect on pension fund balance.The “new”(80,90)of pension spending scale is greater than the "middle"(60,70);From the pension fund short-term and long-term balance of view,the policy adjustment will delay the pension fund "deficit" appears time,help to alleviate the pension payment crisis;The effect of retirement policy adjustment on short-term and long-term balance of pension funds is much larger than that of birth policy adjustment.However,the effect of birth policy adjustment will gradually increase and the effect of retirement policy adjustment will gradually decrease.Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.According to the conclusion of the study,this paper argues that our fertility policy should be adjusted as early as possible because the effect of childbearing policy change is "slow type",and the effect of retirement policy change is "fast heat",in order to give full play to the effect of retirement policy,it Should be as much as possible to extend the implementation of the retirement policy,the implementation of "small jogging." At the same time should be established as soon as possible the normal mechanism of pension adjustment and payment incentives to expand the insured population,to raise the minimum payment of pension years.Speed up the establishment of multi-level pension insurance system,all-round increase in the insurance staff pension replacement rate.The implementation of flexible retirement system,the establishment of statutory retirement age and minimum retirement age two sets of systems.