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Research On The Impaction Upon China’s Future Economic Growth By The Recent Adjustment Of The Population Fertility Policy, What Called The Two Separate Child Policy

Posted on:2016-12-22Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2297330479495070Subject:National Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The absolute number of Chinese working-age population dropped for the first time in 2012 since a fairly long period of time. Many experts and scholars interpreted this change as Break Point of Chinese demographic dividend. In 2013, The Third Plenary Session of the 18 Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party decided to release the national family planning policy, and implement the two separate child policy instead of “One couple, one child”.The new policy was considered as an very important reform measure to promote our economic sustainable and rapidly. The break point of the demographic dividend appears and then the most loosening fertility-liberalization policies will implement. In this background, research on influence of population policy adjustment on the future economic growth becomes more realistic and has a very strong practical significance.This study will solve three key problems. Firstly, through the analysis of historical data of population and economic development, we will have an insight of the relationship between population and economic development. Secondly, predict the change of Chinese future population and structure upon the implementation of the two separate child policy. Thirdly, on basis of the above conclusions, present corresponding policy recommendations, in order to promote the development of Chinese economy healthily.Base on the study of economic in home and abroad, this paper gives a very detailed description of the current situation and characteristics of Chinese population. In general, the growth rate of total population continues to slow, the trend of population aging exacerbates, break point of labor population appears, the gender imbalance worsens, the urban population increases, the level of education continuously upgrades. This paper takes the methods of investigation and research. We survey the fertility willingness of childbearing-age women under the two separate child policy. The survey is divided into three scenes, which is high scene, middle scene, and low scene. In the middle scene, the fertility rate will go up to 1.57, 1.45 and 1.40 from 1.26 in 2014、2015、2016, respectively。This paper predicts China’s 2015-2050 population size and age structure in three scenes with the help of Lesiue Model. The prediction shows that the two separate child policy will delay the population peak. However, the trend of population aging and labor force declining will not change.On the base of relevant research on the domestic and overseas, this paper obtains the relationship between Chinese population and economic growth quantitatively using econometrics models. And the models also give the long-run equilibrium relationship of economy, the capital investment, labor force, and the age structure. The above equilibrium models get a conclusion: In the short term of 2015-2030, there is a small negative impact on economic growth, between-1.0% and-0.4%; In the long term of 2035-2050, there is a significant positive impact on the economy, between 1.1% and 0.56%.Considering the above research results and China’s actual situation, this paper gives five corresponding policy recommendations in the end chapter.
Keywords/Search Tags:The two separate child policy, age structure of the population, labor supply, and economic growth
PDF Full Text Request
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