Research On Prediction And Regulate Of Learning Scale Of Running School Of Higher Education

When entering into the 21 st century,along with the rapid development of the scale of higher education in our country,great changes have been witnessed in various elements within both the intra-and extra-system of institutions of higher learning.For example,there are changes in the economy,science and technology,culture of external system as well as the scale,quality,structure and efficiency of the internal system.On the one hand,these changes are instrumental to people or as expected;on the other hand,those are deficient or hard to satisfy them.“Today is yesterday' s tomorrow”-this classic futurology proposition is to express that sources of everything facing us are hidden from yesterday.The history of the past cannot change,but humans can create a better future by reviewing the history and taking our own actions based on the present.Possibilities exist in the future.If we look forward to the future and hope its development in a way conducive to human,we cannot wait or let it go but take positive actions.In order to avoid the blindness of actions,it is necessary to determine the target in compliance with laws or trend and to implement the action plan.However,the crucial problem is: what is the basis to determine the goal and formulate the action plan?What the scholars both at home and abroad attach importance to are the development of higher education scale and factor change within inside and outside higher education system.For the research of the future development of higher education scale,prediction is the main way taken by scholars.Prediction is different in observation and research,which produces different methods,namely,social demand method,international comparison method,cost benefit method,gross enrollment ratio prediction method,million proportion method and local policy method.These specific methods applied in exploration of laws of the development for advanced education scale and the future state of it has reached a certain achievement.This not only provides the reference for determining the future goals of higher education scale,but also,to some extent,reveals the law of education scale development,supplying the basis for anticipating techniques and model selection.According to the different predictionthoughts and statistical ways,the methods are as follows: time series analysis method(including the trend extrapolation method,moving average,exponential smoothing method,Markova chain probability analysis method,grey prediction method etc.),student flow method,regression prediction analysis method and the like.The logic thinking of these statistical prediction method design mainly consists of the trend of the development for matters,the extension of influential factors,the future deduction based on past trends,or the invariable factors affecting the development of things previously and currently.These ways of thinking are reasonable,because our prediction for the future can only be based on the previous experience and present facts.But from the perspective of design purpose,the biggest problem hindering prediction is the accurate judgment of future anticipation.In order to achieve accurate prediction for the future,under the condition of lacking adequate systems and data,it cannot help but to take increasingly complex mathematical statistic methods and mathematical models.Predicted results is known as the prediction quantity,which are based on the reality analysis of higher education scale and on the reference and shortcomings of the present study,according to the nature and the two major rules of higher education,by assuming that the factors affecting higher education scale are mostly the same,taking school-age population of higher education,the gross enrollment ratio,high school students and the main majors and its weights as variables with parameters,so as to predict the enrollment scale,the school student scale,professional scale,and the scale and trend of conditions for running school of higher education scale in five years.Recruitment scale,the scale of college students,prediction quantity of professional scale,as well as the trend of prediction quantity can be used as references to compare economic and social development demand and its demand trend.Take prediction quantity of student scale as variables and running conditions as quantitative,according to the national standards for institutions of higher learning,predicting that if current running conditions remain same,the future conditions for running schools may be different to the national standard.Under the guidance of this thinking,this study constructed eight prediction models of school scale for running institutions,which consists of eight core prediction steps:(1)the total enrollment;(2)the total enrollment of professional Masters and Doctors;(3)the enrollment of universities and technical colleges;(4)the enrollment of each specialized subjects in universities and technical colleges;(5)the enrollment of each specialized subjects in all institutions of higher learning;(6)the total enrollment ofuniversities and technical colleges;(7)the comparison between coefficient of running conditions for universities and the scale of students at school;(8)the ratification of the total scale of running conditions for universities and the scale of running conditions for universities in terms of prediction of students at school.To run the model,we collect the data of a university scale of a certain area in 2015 into the model,with basic data and predicted data to verify and analyze the present situation and development trend of it;use consistent coefficient to profession,industrial sector,type of work weight,and type of professional and industrial sector to work for dynamic management of school running scale and education resources.Prediction itself is not a purpose,but an objective basis to provide decision makers with decisions and action plans.Decisions and action plans will be adjusted with the change of objective conditions;therefore prediction is incomplete at a time,a cyclic process with control and regulation.Prediction model of this study is based on the conceptual foundation prediction and control.Not only is it about prediction and control model of running scale of higher education during 2016 and 2020,but also can be applied the education scale to prediction and control in the next year or the future.The model is not closed,but can add indicators in the light of the change of objective conditions to expand database.At the same time,it can add other indicators of higher education system,such as professional assessment,learning and development of students,teaching and development of teachers,interactive operation of network curriculum and teaching,and management effectiveness,to achieve the statuesque monitoring,trend prediction,problem analysis and decision-making reference of the whole higher education system.Besides,it can be extended to basic education,by adding basic education schools and various indicators for running schools and constructing the whole education information system in order to realize statuesque monitoring,trend prediction,problem analysis and decision-making reference of the whole education system.It is the historical responsibility of institutions of higher learning as a social organization and also the social responsibility for research staff and those engaged in higher education teaching that the talent cultivation of colleges and universities should meet the need of economic and social development.Despite there are problems to resolve in the prediction of higher education scale,such as objectivity of social demand prediction,scientific nature of the future change prediction for industrial structure,collection and storage of predicted data,and obstacles of technology and system in use,these cannot hinder our trial and exploration based on strong social responsibility and professional ideal in this field.We hope to provide a feasible reference for the sound development of higher education through this study.Through theoretical analysis,this study constructed the dynamic model of prediction and control,drawing on as much as possible the essence of the predecessors' research results although it is impossible.The rapid development of modern information technology and large data thinking and method were proposed and applied which have provided a better technical path for the higher education scale prediction.It is believed that the prediction and control model of this study is not the best and need improve,and hence more researchers are expected to engage into the research,working together to promote higher education in China even the world in a direction towards human and social development.