On The Sources Of Bias In Predication Of China's Higher Education Scale And Its Re-Evaluation

Higher Education contributes a steady stream of talents to the development of the industrial economy.Therefore,the prediction of higher education scale can help to set out forward-looking education planning and to create better balance between education and the industrial sector,which will enhance China's overall national strength.China's government has always attached importance to the control of the scale of higher education."By 2020,the realization of the universal of higher education,and the gross enrollment ratio of 40%","NATIONAL MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM EDUCATION REFORM AND DEVELOPMENT PLAN OUTLINE(2010-2020)"(hereinafter referred to as the "PLAN")writes.However,according to practical data,China's higher education gross enrollment rate in 2015 reached 40%,and in 2016 it was 42.7%.The realization of this scale indicates that it is five years ahead of the development plan,which indicates a mixed result.By tracing the study result from 2010,there are sixteen papers,in which the result of 2020 was predicted.But nearly two-thirds of the scholars gave the prediction results of 2020 to be at 40%,which is the same as the goal of the "PLAN".This is a clear indication that the results of scholars' research have a significant impact on the plan's goal setting.Why do so many scholars' research results give raise such a large bias?The main reasons for the bias accrued herein is the information updating constraint,the rational errors,the model difference and unpredictable policy factors.The new education development "13th five-year plan" has reset the expected target of 2020 to 50%,which is reasonable for scientific prediction.This research has confirmed it through the use of the V-C combination forecast method of higher education scale revaluation,which is on the basis of the result of Logistic model,GM(1,1)grey forecasting model,and rolling regression model,although there is some evidence showing the target may be realized one year in advance.From 40 to 50 percent,this is not only a bigger quantitative indicator,but also a significant qualitative modification of target.The Suggestions given by this paper are as follows:first,to perfect the education information disclosure system and guarantee the access as well as the quality of information disclosure;secondly,to use emerging forecasting methods and gradually improve or eliminate traditional methods;third,to pay more attention to the construction of education think tank and further improving the ability of their scholars;fourth,to expand the source channel of scientific research funding to ensure academic independence of scientific researchers;fifth,to follow the pace of the growth of higher education and prepare for the popularization of education.