| Since the second half of the20th century, the world economy has developed rapidly. The increasing demand for material and the crisis for energy supply have begun to affect the process of economic development of countries. Therefore, energy security becomes one of issues for strategic development in the21st century that all countries in the world must pay attention to.China's development and utilization for the new energy is backward compared with other developed countries. Although late, the strong supports from the state and local government these years have brought to take shape for the new energy industry. Among various kinds of new energy, solar energy is a greatly potential alternative to traditional one. Especially there are abundant solar resources in China, the annual development and utilization of solar energy is equivalent to1.3trillion tons of crude oil. The advantage of this new energy could bring a great number of opportunities for the future development. Under the guide and planning of solar energy development strategic in China, solar industry has gain substantial development.However, due to the solar industry in China is currently still in the early stages of development, there are some problems in system and non-standards in the process of industry's overall development. Therefore, China's photovoltaic industry needs to sort out and solve many problems. The internal structure of the industry has yet to be a more rational integration.Studying several factors of the industry, the internal coordination mechanism among the factors and the impact of external environment would help to find the main risky factors along the industry development. By knowing those risky factors, would help to prevent and control the probability of those risks happened and have important meaning for ensuring positive and healthy development in development of PV industry in China.From aspects of the chain structure and characteristics of development in PV industry, this thesis will employ the risk management theory, the system science theory and the quantum decision theory under conditions of multi-dimensional to analyze main factors and events of risks in China's solar industry, which empirical data of PV industry between2005and2012will be used for research for identifying main risk events in PV industry. Then the proposed measures will be drawing out for control in investment risk of PV industry. There are seven chapters in this thesis.The chapter one is introduction. This is an introduction chapter, which brings an overview of the paper and set the basic framework for this paper. Firstly, it points out questions regarding to the research area. Secondly, it introduces and analyzes the present condition of the renewable energy and Solar photovoltaic industry around the world. Furthermore, this chapter introduces the research content, research methods and some creative points of the paper, an overview of the study process through technology road map.The chapter two is basic theory. This chapter introduces three theories that will be used in the following text. First of all, it explains the quantum probability theory and the research method, which is the base of the full text. Secondly, based on the theory of risk, it introduces the main method of risk identification, risk analysis, risk estimation and risk monitoring. Lastly, it elaborates the main point of the full text, which is Solar photovoltaic industry should be brought into the systematic management, by comparing the main analyzing method of management and science system theory.The chapter three is risk analysis of solar PV industry. From the point of view of qualitative, detail analysis of solar photovoltaic industry has been carried. Mainly base on solar photovoltaic industry, analyzed the present development condition of the industry and the related factors in china. By combining the industry present condition internationally, it has done further research on the risk factors of the solar photovoltaic. It has also provided a sufficient basis of qualitative analysis for the quantitative risk level.The chapter four is the risk analysis of PV industry in China under quantum decision theory. This chapter is a core content in the whole thesis. Basing in detailed qualitative analysis in PV industry risks and combining ideas of quantum decision theory to analyze the specific impact approach and degree for a single risk factor on the PV industry risk. Then a variety of risk factors are integrated for considering the multi-factors interaction systems affect the degree of risk in PV industry. Finally, the entanglements in quantum theory as a breakthrough to show up risk factors are leading to risk events is for solving the classical probability analysis cannot accurately describe the interaction of defects in separate incidents, which is achieving the purpose of describing the system risk in PV industry.The chapter five is the empirical analysis in quantum decision of PV industry in China. This chapter is analyzing the development of China's PV industry in recent years base related data of PV industry in China between2005and2012, which show up the development process of PV industry in China. By introducing the method of quantum decision to risk system model in PV industry, which identify the different risk factors have influence extent in different years. At the same time, the major risk incentives of China's PV industry in different year will be identified and distinguish effect in various factors. And the linkage effects in different risk factors are discussed by the quantum entanglement of system abstract model, which the linkage affects between different risk factors and other risk factors is benefiting for the control and management in risk factors.The chapter six is risk prevention and development in China's solar PV industry. This chapter is foothold in this thesis, showing up the effective risk management measures for dealing with risk factors in internal environment, risk factors related to industrial competitiveness and risk factors in external environment from risk influence factors, which base on the foregoing risks faced by identification and assessment in PV industry. Meanwhile, there is a reasonable outlook in the development of China's PV industry in the future, which is a useful theoretical and practical support for the healthy development of PV industry in China.The chapter seven is summary and expectation. In summary, losing the sustained competitiveness, replaced by related industries, industrial chain rupture are the three main risks of the solar PV industry. The robustness of key factor in PV industry chain has strongest linkage effects for other risks, which mean robustness of key factors in PV industry have extremely important links with technical substitutability in PV industry and reasonable in resources rationality channels, but the technical substitutability in PV industry have weak correlation with reasonable in resources rationality channels. Interaction effects of change during risk factors have same magnitude of change linkage with the whole industry, and the extent of risk factors closely related to the development in whole industry. Thus the question for controlling risks in PV industry is a coordination of macroeconomic policy issues, which focus on specific risk factors and development issues in the whole industry. Under the situation of ensuring the stability of the overall environment focus on control and management in important key factors, which reduces likelihood of occurrence in risk events and promote positive and healthy development in PV industry. |
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