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The Study On Coal Production And Demand Balance Index

Posted on:2016-09-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X Y WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1319330461452351Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Development of China's coal energy has experienced several stages, that is, from production shortage to government encouraging production, and to unplanned production and production limitation. The unplanned production led to excess production. On the other hand, the absence of scientific and reasonable method to monitor and predict the relationship between thermal coal supply and demand is the main cause of the imbalance between production and demand for thermal coal. Because people were unable to grasp the correct state of thermal equilibrium between production and demand, the misguided policies of the coal industry were caused.Because of various restrictions, so far researches on coal production and demand balance are less and relevant research theory system is still not perfect, therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a comprehensive index system that can objectively measure power coal balance between supply and demand, which can avoid the abnormal fluctuation of steam coal market trends and guarantee the healthy development of Chinese coal industry. From the coal enterprise's point of view, the building of coal supply and demand balance index can help related enterprises to realize the monitoring of coal market and grasp the changes amplitude of coal production in order to make quick reaction to fluctuation of the coal market. From the government's point of view, the building of coal supply and demand balance index helps relevant government departments to grasp the situation of coal market supply and demand condition and control the coal market better, so as to ensure China's energy security.This paper put forward the concept of balanced index on the basis of statistical index theory and index factor analysis theory. Then, the relevant influence factors were analyzed and the Short-term and short to medium-term indicator system and index system of balance between production and demand were analyzed. After that, the correlation between Short-term synthetic index and other price indexes in China was analyzed and ARIMA model was used to predict short to medium-term synthetic index, which can guide related business operations' management in the thermal coal market.Conclusions of this study can also provide reference for the relevant government departments and ensure our energy security against the energy crisis and achieve sustainable development of thermal coal resources, which have important practical significance.On arrangement of chapters, this paper is divided into six parts, each chapter details are as follows:Chapter 1: Introduction. From the steam coal market operating conditions, we analyzed the nature problem of thermal coal market price volatility, that is, the lack of thermal steam coal market monitoring and analysis of the balance between production and demand. Combined with theoretical status of research in foreign countries, we explained the theoretical and practical significance in the building of thermal coal production and demand balance index. And a brief introduction from the overall content of the study was made, research methods and technology roadmap were introduced.Chapter 2: Overview of relevant methods and theoretical basis. This chapter mainly introduced the index theory and its development, including the index selection principle, index system, the reference cycle and the base date determination, index screening and classification etc. Secondly, calculation and method of the diffusion index were summarized, including the concept, the diffusion index calculation procedure and method of analysis. Thirdly, calculation and method of the synthetic index was summarized, including the concept, the synthetic index calculation procedure and method of analysis. Finally, calculation and method of the warning index was summarized, including the concept, the warning index calculation procedure and method of analysis. Analysis and calculation method of the above index paves the way for thermal related research on thermal coal production and demand balance index.Chapter 3: Analysis of thermal coal market factors. First, China's power coal supply and related issues were investigated, including the status quo of China's thermal coal resources, thermal coal supply situation analysis and thermal coal demand analysis and macroeconomic. This chapter lay the foundation for the building of thermal coal production and demand balance index.Chapter 4: Research on Short-term balanced index of thermal coal. This chapter mainly includes three parts, which are, the building of Short-term indicator system, the building of Short-term index system and the correlation analysis of relevant price indexes. In the building of Short-term indicator system, firstly, indicators and data were selected, and benchmark cycle and the benchmark date were determined. In classification of indicators, the time difference correlation method, K-L information quantity method, cluster analysis method and the corresponding peak valley method were used in order to determine the Short-term leading indicators, concurrent indicators and lagging indicators. There are three parts in building the Short-term index system, which are diffusion index, synthetic index and warning index. Finally, the correlation analysis was made among Short-term balanced index, Bohai sea thermal coal price index and Chinese coal price index so as to prove the reasonability of the index.Chapter 5: Research on short to medium-term balanced index of thermal coal. Research ideas and methods on the short to medium-term balanced index is the same with the Short-term balanced index. This chapter includes three parts, that is, the building of short to medium-term indicator system, the building of short to medium-term index system and the short term prediction of the synthetic index by using the ARIMA model. The prediction can be reference for relevant enterprises and departments.Chapter 6: Conclusions and outlook of the study. This chapter explained the findings and outline in this study. Innovations of this research are summarized. Combined with previous studies, we illustrated the limitations of existing studies, and proposed the future research directions.This study has several major innovations:Firstly, Power coal production and demand balance evaluation index system was constructed.Secondly, the Short-term power coal production and demand balance index system was built. Short-term thermal coal market operation data between 2010 and 2014 were used in the empirical analysis.Thirdly, the short to medium-term power coal production and demand balance index system was built. Short to medium-term thermal coal market operation data between 2010 and 2014 were used in the empirical analysis.In conclusion, the thermal coal production index built in the study can objectively reflect situations of China's thermal coal market and achieve short-term forecasts for thermal coal market supply and demand, and it plays a guiding role in coal production, transportation and consumption market. Conclusions of this study can be reference for relevant government departments in formulating medium and long time energy development strategy, as well as ensure our energy security, against the energy crisis and achieve sustainable development of thermal coal resources...
Keywords/Search Tags:thermal coal, supply and demand balance analysis, diffusion index, synthetic index, index compilation
PDF Full Text Request
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