Research On The Compilation Of National Grain Prosperity Index

National food security is the most important part of the development of the grain industry.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out: To ensure national food security,we must put the Chinese people's rice bowl in their hands.Ensuring food security is essential for national food climate monitoring.The preparation of the national grain prosperity index is to screen out representative indicators,establish a monitoring index system for food industry development,and compile a food climate index.It is the result of the monitoring activities of the economy and can describe the basic operating conditions and cyclical fluctuations of the development of the grain industry.It can also predict the future development trend and analyze and judge the food situation of the whole country.This paper firstly reviews the two aspects of the prosperity index and the factors affecting the development of the grain industry.Considering the importance of food prices in the overall development of food industry and food security,as well as the availability and timeliness of data,the benchmark indicator is the grain transaction.The price index,and selected 21 indicators for the development of the prosperity index from five aspects,but due to the availability of data,policies,meteorological disasters,farmer subsidies and other factors are not reflected in this article.Secondly,after data processing,the indicators are classified into the leading indicators,the consistent indicators and the lagging indicators by using the graphic method,the time difference correlation coefficient method,the K-L information method and the EM clustering method.Thirdly,the weights of each index are calculated by the three methods of analytic hierarchy process,entropy method and factor analysis method,and the weights are combined by the "addition" integration method to obtain comprehensive weights.The diffusion index and composite index of each indicator group in each period are calculated by comprehensive weights.Finally,this paper uses the consistent indicator group to compile the grain comprehensive early warning index,draws a comprehensive warning light chart,and predicts the future trend of the comprehensive early warning index according to the HoltWinters exponential smoothing method.In this paper,the grain prosperity index is tentatively compiled.In the method of determining the weight of the diffusion index and the synthetic index,the weights calculated by several methods will be integrated by using the “addition” model in the comprehensive evaluation index system.The calculated grain prosperity index has a good effect.Through the compilation of the advance synthesis index and the early warning index,it is predicted that there will be a downward trend in the future.The predicted value of the early warning index and the real value are 0.0883,which is higher in accuracy.This paper can monitor the overall basic operation of food,predict future development trends,and have certain practical significance for the country to formulate relevant food policies and maintain national food security.