The Estimation And Modeling Of Knowledge Spillovers By The Influence Of High-speed Railway

The development of high-speed railway is entering a mature stage.High accessibility influences the knowledge innovation structure and knowledge spillover between regions.The research of the relationship between high speed railway and the effect of knowledge spillover is in order to explain the dynamic mechanism of the external high speed railway,which is essentially based on the analysis of the external nature of knowledge.It uses the generation and transmission of knowledge spillover to quantify the impact of high-speed railway on regional social and economic growth.According to the accessibility theory,New Economic Geography and the endogenous economic growth theory,this paper uses panel data analysis and other methods of space measurement and Simulation of complex systems to research the influence of high speed railway on the spatial dependence of knowledge spillover and the structure of regional knowledge innovation with GIS.The main conclusions and innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper established a multi-dimensional framework for the direct impact of high-speed railway on the social economy,which provided a basis for the follow-up study of knowledge spillovers of high speed railway.In order to accurately measure the impact of high-speed railway from multiple dimensions,especially the knowledge dimension,the direct impact of high speed railway is analyzed by constructing the index of the generalized travel cost,employment accessibility,market potential and knowledge accessibility.The study found that under the influence of high-speed railway,the spatial structure of the average travel time and employment accessibility change indistinctively,but the spatial structure of knowledge accessibility and market potential change significantly.In addition,it is considered that the impact of high-speed railway on the knowledge spillover of regional innovation system had became the main driving force of the social and economic impact of high-speed railway under the framework of accessibility interpretation.Secondly,based on the core periphery model,under the simplified assumption,the influence formation mechanism of high speed railway on the knowledge spillover effect is explained by the definition of knowledge innovation game model.The result shows that the main dynamic mechanism of knowledge spillover includes the optimal choice of the innovation behavior of the production subject and the sharing of the public knowledge pool in the region,where high speed railway changes the influence of game equilibrium between enterprises through three path of knowledge spillover.In the system of knowledge sharing,the knowledge spillover effect and the center periphery distribution of knowledge innovation promote each other,which form the iteration cycle.Under the influence of high speed railway,the motivation of knowledge spillover is transferred from the input oriented to efficiency oriented.Thirdly,the temporal and spatial variation of knowledge spillovers in the region under the influence of high speed railway was estimated by the improved spatial econometric model.The spatial panel data estimation models of knowledge spillover effect were constructed with the generalized distance weight matrix of knowledge accessibility based on the model of panel data SDM,SEM,SAR and so on,in order to avoid the system error caused by the weight matrix of the adjacent or Euclidean distance.It is proved that the existence of knowledge spillover effect and the change of the cause of the knowledge spillover effect after the completion of high-speed railway based on 2005-2014 economic and knowledge innovation data,which quantifies the variation law of knowledge spillover in the space.The results show that there is a spatial correlation between the regional knowledge output and the total output of the society,which indicates that the dominant driver of the spatial correlation of the social production include the geographical specificity and the time lag effect.The spatial spillover of social production is more significant than the spatial spillover of knowledge innovation.The decay of knowledge spillover is significantly dependent on the generalized distance,compared with the Euclidean distance.In addition,through the analysis of the knowledge spillover in the process of knowledge innovation,the regional innovation tends to be concentrated in the high speed railway,while the regional production tends to be dispersed.Fourthly,based on the influence law of high-speed railway found in the above,the knowledge spillover effect of high-speed railway had been simulated under different environmental parameters.In order to analyze the dependence of the high speed railway on the effect of knowledge spillover,a simulation model of the two-stage knowledge innovation evolution was built with the stock of public knowledge,which was a cellular automaton simulation method based on the motivation of knowledge spillover under the influence of high speed railway.The influence of different environmental parameters on the regional knowledge spillover effect was obtained with/without high speed railway.Through the analysis of knowledge innovation system under the influence of high speed railway,it could be found that the effect of high speed railway on the agglomeration effect of knowledge innovation activity is significant.The impact of HSR on knowledge spillover had concentric zone effect,which divided the space distribution of knowledge innovation and social production evolution into three levels.In addition,knowledge spillover effect is more significant in high speed railway with higher knowledge privatization rate.