Evaluation On Total Factor Productivity Of China Nonferrous Metals Industry

China's nonferrous metals industry is one of the most important basic manufacturing industries.In the period of "13th Five-year",China's nonferrous metals industry steps into the key stage of structure adjustment,transformation and upgrading,and the resource price increasing,unsubstantial demand and severe environmental pressures have restrained its development.Improving the total factor productivity of nonferrous metals industry abides by the five-new development identity "innovation,coordination,green,open,sharing" which is put forward in the "13th Five-Year Plan".Therefore,this paper applies comprehensive and accurate method for evaluating the total factor productivity of China's nonferrous metal industry.The main research contents and innovative results are as follows:(1)Introduces the energy consumption index into the SBM-DEA modeland apply the Malmquist index model,to analyze the dynamic and static changes of the total factor productivity of China's nonferrous metals industry,we found that China's nonferrous metal industry total factor efficiency is not high in general under the energy constraints.The technical level and energy utilization of nonferrous metals industry pull down the comprehensive efficiency level of China's nonferrous metals industry.From the perspective of three main areas,China's nonferrous metals industry presents a stepwise trend from east to west.From the perspective of energy saving potential,the nonferrous metals industry of western region is the main energy saving potential area.(2)Studies the clustering and convergence of the total factor productivity of nonferrous metals industry in China.The cluster analysis results show that the total factor productivity of the nonferrous metals industry in three main areas shows the ladder type characteristics.This paper makes the convergence analysis by using three methods which are ? convergence,absolute ? convergence and conditional(3 convergence.The convergence results show that the total factor productivities of nonferrous metals industry in each province did not significantly present a steady trend convergence.(3)Analyzes the influence factors of China's nonferrous metals industry by using the Tobit regression model.The regression results show that the level of economic development,opening up level,technology level,the structure of factor endowments and environmental regulation improve the total factor productivity of China's nonferrous metals industry.However,property rights system has significantly negative effects on the total factor productivity of nonferrous metals industry.(4)Constructs China's nonferrous metal industry energy consumption and pollutant emissions grey forecasting model and applies this model to forecast energy consumption and pollutant emissions of China's nonferrous metals industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan".The prediction results show that the energy consumption of nonferrous metals industry presents a growth tendency.The energy consumption situation of China's nonferrous metals industry is still grim.With the energy increasing of nonferrous metals industry,the discharge of pollutants is also presenting a growth trend.The burden of reducing emissions of China's nonferrous metals industry is really serous under the existing reduction equipments and technology level.