Research On The Economic Effects Of The China Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ)

China's accession to the WTO dividend gradually depleted,trade conflicts with the world's major economies intensified.TPP(Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement),Sino US bilateral investment treaty(BIT),TTIP(trans the Atlantic trade and investment partnership agreements(PSA)and the(multi)edge services agreement)and other international background to Chinese future foreign trade environment and economic development has brought great challenges.In this context,China's policy of free trade area arises at the historic moment,and now our country has set up 11 free trade zone.In China,the establishment of the FTZ is to first test the new rules of the international trade in the new standard,through financial,trade,investment,government management and a series of policy changes,Chinese test whether can meet the high standards of international rules,and to replicate the experience of application in the country.Based on the above background,this paper starts from the analysis of the current situation of the development of free trade zone,and studies the economic effects of China'spilot free trade area,and obtain the following conclusions:(1)The management model of negative lists is analyzed in the test areaofFTA.By using the frequency method to compare the improved version of the negative listsinShanghai in 2014with the national general version of the negative lists in 2015,itinvestigates the openness of FTA test area.The results show that the service sectorsin 2015 is more open than those in 2014,and that the provisions of special management measures are more streamlined,and more universal.At the same time,the negative lists of various industries are discussed.Taking the FTA test area as stakeholders,it constructs a stakeholders' model by their opening degree in the negative lists,and adds them into the evaluation system,then use the stakeholder theory to conduct a comprehensive assessment of policy of Shanghai FTA test area.It finds that the "negative list" management mode supports the development of the free trade zone in a short period of time,butfor the surrounding area in terms of"negative list",the diffusion effect is not obvious.Then according to the empirical results,it puts forward specific policy recommendations for the future FTA test area management innovation and system improvement.(2)In order to solve the problem thatFTA is set up in a short time,and that it lacks relevant data,the system dynamics is used to simulate and forecast the economic effect of the FTA test area.Specifically,itviewsShanghai FTA test area as a system,andestablishes Shanghai FTA's map as the system boundary,and selects nineintra and extra region factors as variable factors,and divides into five categories of indicators according to the target of Shanghai industry and functional layout,andconstructsasubsystem on the basis of considering the interaction mechanism among the factors,and then summarize the system after determining the causal relationship between the various factors.Then theempirical analysisis carried out by using the actual amount of foreign investment within the system in the region,a total operating income of Shanghai City import and export trade,it puts forward a sound system integration policy direction of the FTA test area through the comparison analysis between historical data and simulation results.(3)The "counterfactual" method is employed to comparesome indexes,including the industrial added value,total imports and exports,imports and exports of four growth rate index,with the corresponding optimal control group.The results show that in addition to export volume index fell,the"real value"of remaining three indicators are significantly higher than that of the "counterfactual" value,whichproves that the establishment of the free trade zone in Shanghai do have a positive role in promoting economic growth.Further,it uses the five main macroeconomic indicators of Shanghai to establish a regression model.Through the verification of the above results,it shows that the establishment of the FTA test area in Shanghai has direct effect on foreign direct investment.Then it constructs the evaluation index system of performance in the FTA test area.AHP method is used to analyze the contribution of various factors in the evaluation system,and according to the performance evaluation system,some suggestions about the construction of free trade zone are given from the macro,meso and micro levels.