Study On Grain Market Integration In North China During Mid-qing Dynasty (1776-1840)

Market integration is one of the core factors in the course of modernization.Analysising wheat market in North China during 1776-1840 qualitatively and quantitatively,this thesis discussed the case of market integration of the Chinese traditional society,and find that the information of price change indicates that there was an integrated market in North China during Mid-Qing Dynasty;besides of the market power,the factors of natural disasters and acts of state played a positive role in market integration.This thesis contains three main parts.Firstly,we discussed the internal condition for the integration of grain market in North China in Mid-Qing Dynasty.Based on sorting out the relevant historical materials,from the perspective of transaction cost,we evaluated the arbitrage space of the wheat market in North China during 1776-1840.The analysis result shows that land trade was not feasible,but waterborne trade was feasible,and there was an arbitrage space in wheat market.The result shows that there was the internal condition of market integration in North China duiring Mid-Qing Dynasty.Secondly,we discussed the external conditions for the integration of grain market in North China during Mid-Qing Dynasty.On the one hand,we investigated the natural disasters in North China during 1776-1840.The result shows that there were two characteristics of natural disasters in Mid-Qing Dynasty-mulriple-types and high-frequency.On the other hand,we surveyed the system structure,behavior rules and implementation of the acts of state in North China during 1776-1840.The result shows that there are three characteristics of the acts of state in the Mid-Qing Dynasty--goal-oriented,clear-ruled and powerful-executed.The analysis of natural disasters and the acts of state are pointing to a conclusion:it is possible that the market integration was influenced by natural disasters and acts of state,and these two the factors must be taken into consideration.Thirdly,we take an empirical analysis on whether there was an integrated market by the informations of grain price,and the role of natural disasters and government actions on the market development in North China Mid-Qing Qing Dynasty.Using the mothed of Johansen Co-integration Test,we analysised the case of market integration in North China during Mid-Qing Dynasty.The result shows that there was an integrated market in North China duiring Qing Dynasty,and the factors of natural disasters and acts of state played a prominent role.The estimation results of the Fixed Effect Model shows the same conclusion,and reveals the positive role of natural disasters and acts of state played in market integration.It can be comprehended from three aspects for the important role of natural disasters and acts of state in Chinese traditional market.First,the prominent role of state in Chinese traditional market was determined by the natural environment and political culture in ancient China.Second,the powerful acts of state in Chinese traditional market contributed to the matured political system and the efficient administration.Third,the destructiveness of natural disaster and the mighty role of state in Chinese traditional market was not means the suppression to market power.