| After the World War ?,the development of economy,the improvement of national income,the increase in leisure time and the progress of transportation technology have promoted the fast development of tourism.Tourism has become the world's largest industry now,the size of its output and employment capacity are among the forefront of industry in the world economy.After the reform and open policy,the tourism industry in our country has just started,as an industry has gradually been valued at all levels.With the function of market economy system and the support of the government,the tourism industry in China has been developing rapidly.Because the tourism industry plays an important role in promoting employment,expanding domestic demand,satisfying the growing demand of people,propagatingtraditional culture,protectingecology environment and so on,which makes tourism industry being positioned as a pillar industry or strategic pillar industry.With the rising status of tourism,the impact of tourism on economic and social development have been constantly deepening,the related research of tourism also gradually increased.Among them,there are many literatures about the influence of tourism on economic growth and the relationship between tourism and environment,however the social effect of tourism is less.Based on the previous literatures,it can be found that most of conclusion of studying on the impact of tourism on the economy is positive or negative,or to verify the causal relationship between the two,seldom explores the economic growth effect of tourism under different conditions.When studying the relation between environment and tourism,many literatures are qualitative analysis.Based on this,on the basis of previous research,this paper will integrate tourism into the strategy of economic and social environment,make scientific and reasonable analysis of the economic growth effect of tourism and the coordinated development of the tourism with economy,society and environment.Based on the above purpose,taking domestic tourism and inbound tourism of China's 31 provinces as the research object,this paper carries on the deep level and multi angle analysis about the economic effect of domestic tourism and inbound tourism under the different condition of the economic development level and the degree of specialization of tourism.Then the temporal and spatial evolution trend of tourism economic effect,the mechanism of the interaction between tourism development and economic growth and the coupling coordination of tourism with economic,social,environmental and regional comprehensive development level during 2000~2014 are studied,which taks tourism index,the economic indicators,social indicators data,environmental index data,statistical yearbook data,economic growth as controlling variables of affect economic growth in statistical yearbook.The paper takes geography,tourism,economics and other disciplines as a guide,combining with the theory of economic growth,the unbalanced development theory,location theory,coupling theory and tourism economics theory,integrating the use of classical econometrics,spatial econometrics,coordination degree model and grey prediction model and other measurement methods.Specifically,six parts are contained:The first part is the introduction.This partintroduces the research background,research questions,the theoretical basis and practical significance of research.According to the research objectives,design research content,then choose reasonable research methods and technical routes to achieve in-depth exploration.The second part is literature review and related theories.This part expounds the core concepts,the positive and negative effects of tourism development on economic growth,and the interaction mechanism between tourism development and economic growth.Then make comparative analysis of economic growth effect of tourism and the coordinated development of tourism with economy,society,environment and regional comprehensive development level at home and abroad from the views of literature review on research contents,research methods and conclusions.At the same time,this part introduces the related theories of economics,geography and tourism,which is the theoretical basis of the research and analysis of this paper.The third part is the quantitative analysis of tourism' economic effect.This part introduces the current situation of tourism and economic growth.Then the least squares method,spatial lag model and spatial error model,spatial Durbin model and geographically weighted regression model are used to estimate the economic growth effect and spatial spillover effect of tourism.Analyze the distribution characteristics of tourism and economic growth in every province in the study period,explore the correlation of the spatial distribution of the two,make time and space's comparative analysis of the economic growth effect of tourism,andin-depth study the spatial and temporal evolution of the economic growth effect of tourism.The development situation of the tourism industry,the situation of economic growth and the spatial and temporal trends of economic growth of tourism are comprehensively studied to judge whether the tourism industry is helpful to reduce the regional economic disparity.The fourth part is the coordinated development of tourism with economy,society,environment and regional comprehensive development level.Construct of the index system of tourism system,economic system,social system,environmental system and regional comprehensive development level,determine the weight of each index on the basis of the entropy weighting method.First of all,the comprehensive evaluation value of the five systems is analyzed.Secondly,the coordinated development of tourism and the other four systems are analyzed by coupling coordination degree model,and finally,the forecast model is used to forecast the level of coordinated development between tourism and other four major systems.Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution trend of the comprehensive evaluation value of the five systems and the coupling level between tourism industry and other systems,the main factors that affect the coordination of tourism industry and other systems are obtained.The fifth part is the typical area analysis and countermeasure suggestion.This part is combined with the empirical analysis conclusion of the fourth and fifth chapter,select different types of regions to carry out typical regional analysis to give full play to the role of economic growth for the tourism,provide targeted countermeasures and suggestions of realizing the coordinated development of tourism and economy,society,environment and regional comprehensive development level.The sixth part is the conclusion and innovation.The paper's conclusions are summarized,meanwhile make further summary for how to give full play to the role of economic growth for tourism and how to make proposed implementation of coordinated development of tourism and economy,society,environment and regional comprehensive development level.The innovation points of this paper are extracted,the shortcomings of this paper are stated,and the future research directions are prospected. |
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