The Spatio-temporal Effect And Mechanism Of The Impact Of European Regional Integration On Inbound Tourism Of The European Union

This study analyzes historical factors in depth,delves into the detailed chronicles of EU growth,and explores the formation of tourism policies and institutions.The paper uses differences-inDifferences model and spatial econometric model to explore spatio-temporal effect and mechanism of European regional integration on EU inbound tourism,based on the theory of regional integration,the theory of regional economic spatial connections,the theory of international tourism demand and the theory of spatial interaction.EU is the case study,We analyze the time effects of the most important regional integration achievements of the EU on inbound tourism,such as the Schengen visa,the euro,and the single market,and the Spatial effects impact of crisis events such as terrorist attacks,refugee crises and the European debt crisis on inbound tourism in the context of regional integration policies,analyzing the effects of European integration on inbound tourism in the European Union due to the accumulation of time and space spillovers,presenting characteristics of spatial differentiation and time change.We choose the most important policy achievements of European integration,such as single market,the euro,and the Schengen visa,which are most closely related to inbound tourism,and analyze the time effect and mechanism of European integration on EU inbound tourism.The time effect and mechanism of single market,Euro,and Schengen visas on inbound tourism are mainly reflected in the following aspects.The single market promotion mechanism for EU inbound tourism is to reduce travel costs and realize tourism creation;transfer from non-member countries;spillover effects of inbound tourism outside the region;investment effects of out-of-region tourism.The empirical results show that the single market has promotion effect on inbound tourism,and it has different promotion effects on countries with different levels of inbound tourism development.The quantile regression shows that the unified big market policy has a significant impact on all quantiles of inbound tourist arrivals and inbound tourism receipt,but has a greater impact on countries with few arrivals and receipt of international tourism.The segmentation regression shows that in terms of inbound tourist arrivals and inbound tourism receipt,the single market segmentation duration has significantly promoted inbound tourism at each time period.As the time to join the single market increases,the effect is also increasing,but the effect is greater in the old member states.The euro’s promotion mechanism for inbound tourism is to promote the sales of tourism products;enhance the potential of the tourism market in the euro zone;strengthen tourism cooperation in the euro zone;and increase the international competitiveness of tourism companies.The empirical results show that the impact of the euro policy on number of arrivals and receipts from inbound tourism in the euro area is significantly greater than zero at the level of 1%.Quantile regression shows that there is a quantile difference in the impact of the euro on inbound tourist arrivals.The euro has a significant impact on all quantiles,but the euro has a greater impact on countries with a large number of arrivals of international tourism.The euro has a quantile difference in its impact on inbound tourism receipts,which has a greater impact on countries with less inbound tourism receipts.The segmentation regression shows that the duration of joining the euro zone has significantly promoted number of inbound tourists and inbound tourism receipts at different time periods.With the increase in the time of joining Euro zone,the effect has also increased,But it fluctuated due to the European debt crisis.The promotion mechanism of the Schengen visa policy for EU inbound tourism is that the Schengen visa stimulates the business tourism market and the VFR leisure tourism market;the "same country effect" of the Schengen visa promotes the establishment of a single tourism market;the Schengen visa promotes tourism through the country’s space spillover effect Increased flows;changes in the list of positive and negative countries in the Schengen Agreement increase tourism demand.The empirical results show that the impact of Schengen visa policy on the number of inbound tourists and receipts from inbound tourism in the Schengen area is significantly greater than zero at the level of 1%.Quantile regression indicates that the Schengen visa policy has a significant impact on all quantiles of inbound tourist arrivals and inbound tourist receipts,but has a greater impact on countries with less inbound tourist arrivals and less receipts.The segmentation regression shows that the duration of the Schengen visa policy has significantly promoted inbound tourism at each time period.With the increase of the time of joining the Schengen area,the effect is also increasing,but the growth rate may be slowing down due to "decreasing marginal effects".The important institutional achievements of European regional integration(single market,Schengen visa,Euro)make crisis events(European debt crisis,refugee crisis,terrorist attacks)have space spillover effect on inbound tourism.The spatial effect and mechanism of refugee crisis,terrorist attack and European debt crisis on inbound tourism are mainly reflected in the following aspects.The impact of refugee crisis inbound tourism is as follows: from the perspective of the EU as a whole,refugee crisis has a stimulating effect on inbound tourism,and inbound tourism revenue has a suppressive effect.The refugee crisis has a significant inhibitory effect on inbound tourist arrivals and a significant promotion on inbound tourism receipts under the influence of the Schengen policy.The refugee crisis has a negative spillover effect on inbound tourist arrivals and a positive spillover effect on inbound tourism receipts;The refugee crisis has a positive spillover effect on inbound tourists and a negative spillover effect on inbound tourism receipts under the influence of the Schengen policy.Sub regional empirical analysis of the impact of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism arrivals show.that the refugee crisis has a positive impact on inbound tourists,but this impact is negative under the influence of the Schengen policy in Central / Eastern European countries.The spillover effect of the refugee crisis on inbound tourist arrivals is positive in Central / Eastern European countries.But the spillover effect of the refugee crisis on inbound tourist arrivals is negative in Western European countries.Sub regional empirical analysis of the impact of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism receipts shows that impact of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism receipts is negative in Central / Eastern European countries under the influence of the Schengen policy.The spillover effect of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism receipts is negative in the Central / Eastern European countries.The spillover effect of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism receipts is positive in Central / Eastern European countries under the influence of the Schengen policy.The refugee crisis has raised the attention of the relatively backward Central / Eastern European countries and created an exposure effect,which has aroused the attention of the international community,forming a tourism creation and transfer mechanism and the use of the tourism spillover mechanism in the EU region to stimulate tourist interest.The European refugee crisis has increased the financial burden of member states,led to economic depression,increased unemployment,reduced disposable income of residents,affected the EU residents ’tourism budget,and then affected tourism demand.The refugee crisis increases social instability and the probability of terrorist attacks,suppressing the occurrence of international tourism.Refugees pouring into border countries has a refugee spillover effect,which has caused the refugee crisis to affect the tourism of neighboring or close countries in the Schengen visa area.The impact of the terrorist attack on inbound tourism is as follows: from the perspective of the EU as a whole,empirical results show that the impact of terrorist attacks on inbound tourist arrivals is significantly negative,and the impact of terrorist attacks on inbound tourism receipts is not statistically significant.Terrorist attacks have a negative spillover effect on inbound tourist arrivals,but are positive under the influence of Schengen visa policy and positive under the influence of single market policy;Terrorist attacks have a negative spillover effect on inbound tourism receipts,but are positive under the influence of single market policy.Sub regional empirical of the impact of terrorist attacks on inbound tourism show that when the dependent variable is the number of inbound tourists,the estimated coefficient of terrorist attacks in the geographic distance weight matrix model is significantly positive in Central / Eastern Europe,Northern Europe,and Western Europe.The estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks are significantly negative in the three weight matrix models under the influence of the Schengen visa policy in Northern Europe,and the estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks are significantly negative in the geographical distance weight matrix model under the influence of the single market policy in Central / Eastern Europe.When dependent variable is inbound tourism receipts,the impact of terrorist attacks on inbound tourism are positive in geographic distance matrix for Central /Eastern Europe,geographic distance matrix and economic distance matrix for Western Europe.Under the influence of the Schengen visa policy,the estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks are significantly positive in the three weight matrix models in Central / Eastern Europe,and the estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks are significantly negative in the geographic distance weight matrix model in southern / Mediterranean Europe.Northern Europe,the estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks are significantly negative in the three weight matrix models.Under the influence of the unified big market policy,Central / Eastern Europe,the estimated coefficient of terrorist attacks is significantly negative in the geographic distance weight matrix model.The estimated results of the space spillover effects of terrorist attacks on inbound tourism show that Western Europe and Central / Eastern Europe,the estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks based on the geographic distance and geographical adjacency weight models,and Northern Europe overflows based on three distance weight models are significantly positive when the dependent variable is the number of inbound tourists.The spillover effect of the three distance weight models is significantly negative in Northern Europe under the influence of the unified Schengen visa policy,and the spillover effect of Central / Eastern Europe is significantly negative in the geographic distance and geographic adjacency weighting model under the influence of the unified big market policy.The estimated coefficients of terrorist attacks based on geographic distance weighting model in Central / Eastern Europe,and Western Europe based on three weighting models are significantly positive when the dependent variable is inbound tourism income.Tthe spillover effects of Central /Eastern Europe based on the three weight matrix models are significantly positive under the influence of the unified Schengen visa policy.The spillover effect of Central / Eastern Europe based on the geographic distance weighting model is significantly negative,and the spillover effect of Southern / Mediterranean Europe based on geographic distance weighting model is positive under the influence of the unified big market policy.The empirical results of the impact of the European debt crisis on inbound tourism are as follows: from the perspective of the EU as a whole,the impact of the European debt crisis on inbound tourism arrivals is positive,but the impact is negative under the influence of the euro policy.The impact of the European debt crisis on inbound tourism receipts is not significant,but the impact of the European debt crisis on inbound tourism receipts is negative under the influence of the euro policy.The European debt crisis has no spillover effect on inbound tourism arrivals,but the spillover effect is positive under the influence of Euro policy.The European debt crisis has no significant spillover effect on inbound tourism receipts,but the spillover effect is negative under the influence of Euro policy.Sub regional empirical analysis of the impact of the refugee crisis on inbound tourism shows that the estimated coefficient of the European debt crisis is negative in Central / Eastern Europe and Western Europe when the dependent variable is inbound tourism arrivals,and the estimated coefficient of the European debt crisis is positive in the South / Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe when the dependent variable is inbound tourism arrivals.Under the influence of the Euro policy,the debt crisis in Europe has a negative impact in the four regions of Central / Eastern Europe,Western Europe,Southern / Mediterranean Europe,and Northern Europe.When the dependent variable is inbound tourism receipts,the impact of the European debt crisis is negative in Central / Eastern Europe;the impact of the European debt crisis is positive in South / Mediterranean Europe.The estimated coefficients of the European debt crisis in the South /Mediterranean Europe are negative under the influence of the euro policy,.Estimated results of the European debt crisis’ s spillover effect on inbound tourism,When the dependent variable is inbound tourism arrivals,the impact of European debt crisis is positive in South / Mediterranean Europe,and negative in northern Europe.The impact of European debt crisis is negative in central / Eastern Europe,the impact of European debt crisis is negative in South /Mediterranean Europe under the influence of Euro policy.When the dependent variable is inbound tourism receipts,the impact of European debt crisis is negative in central / Eastern Europe,the impact of European debt crisis is negative in northern Europe,the impact of European debt crisis is positive in Southern / Mediterranean Europe and Western Europe.Under the influence of Euro policy,the impact of European debt crisis is negative in central / Eastern Europe,the impact of European debt crisis is negative in South / Mediterranean Europe,the impact of European debt crisis is positive in northern Europe.Based on the above results of empirical research and mechanism analysis,the following suggestions are made:The single market and Schengen visa policies have promoted the development of inbound tourism in the EU region by removing barriers to market materials,technology,taxation,and the movement of people.They have different promotion roles for countries of different development levels and new and old member states.Therefore,EU funding should have regional and industrial preferences,and provide more financial support for cross-border cooperation,including tourism,through European institutions.Empirical studies have found that refugee crises and terrorist attacks have inhibited the effect of the single market and Schengen visa system on promoting inbound tourism,or that the single market and Schengen visa system can provide mobility,shopping,and entertainment for inbound tourism.It also facilitates the flow of terrorists and refugees,and the large-scale implementation of terrorist attacks.As a result,terrorist attacks and refugee crises have become regional problems,resulting in spatial spillover of inbound tourism.Accordingly,it is proposed to strengthen police and judicial cooperation among countries,strengthen refugee management,revise refugee reception policies and border management systems,and avoid illegal cross-border and illegally increased refugee numbers;regardless of political system,dependence on tourism and national income at all levels,all tourism stakeholders(including destination marketing organizations,local media,host governments,and tourism)need to work together to implement their risk and crisis management plans to prevent,reduce,and mitigate the effects of terrorism.The launch of the single currency Euro promotes tourism cooperation by enhancing price transparency,enhancing the potential of the tourism market and international competitiveness,and promoting the development of inbound tourism.The EU should continue to improve institutional arrangements to improve the environment in which the euro operates,increase the use of the euro in the settlement of cross-euro zone trade,increase the euro ’s proportion of foreign exchange reserves held by non-member countries and major developed countries,and stabilize the euro ’s foreign exchange in the market will increase the liquidity of the euro to enhance the international influence and competitiveness of the euro,to enhance the development potential and international competitiveness of tourism enterprises,and to improve the tourism operating environment to promote the impact on inbound tourism.However,empirical research shows that the European debt crisis has hindered the effect of the Euro policy on the promotion of inbound tourism,indicating that the European debt crisis is not just a sovereign debt crisis,but also a euro crisis caused by sovereign debt problems.The use of the single currency Euro,through cross-holding of trade and debt between countries,makes it contagious and spread in the euro area.The euro area countries stem from the unified monetary policy and decentralized fiscal policy.It is difficult to use fiscal policy to ease the economic crisis,which makes The debt crisis has become a regional crisis,which constitutes the operating environment of the inbound tourism market and affects the development of inbound tourism.According to this,the EU must reach a unified fiscal policy within the euro area,increase the authority of the European Central Bank,establish a unified banking supervision system,stabilize the European financial market,and stabilize the operating environment of the euro.