Research On Urban Construction Land Guarantee Of Central Jilin Province

Urban construction land is the spatial basis of urbanization development.Since the reform and opening up,China's urbanization process has accelerated significantly,the urbanization level has been greatly improved in a short period of time,but there is still a big gap compared with the developed countries.It will be a key period for China's urbanization development in the next few decades,and the demand of urban construction land will increase significantly with the the rapid growth of urban population.Urbanization development has brought serious negative impact to the natural resources and environment,and urban construction land supply will be increasingly constrained by the factors of resource and environment in the context of new type urbanization and ecological civilization construction,which will make urban construction land supply increasingly tense in the future urbanization development process.Under the background of the increasing demand and increasingly tense supply of urban construction land,China's future urbanization development will face the severe shortage of urban construction l and,and urbanization construction land guarantee becomes a key problem to be solved urgently.How to coordinate the contradiction between the construction land that must be ensured in the urbanization development process and the protection of resources and environment is one of the important scientific problems facing the future urbanization development.This paper analyzes the characteristics of both the urbanization development and the utilization of urban construction land at the beginning,and quantifies the scale of available urban construction land under different resource and environmental constraint degrees,and then predicts the limit scale of urban construction land demand in the mature period of urbanization,finally analyzes the urban construction land guarantee of central Jilin Province in the mature period of urbanization under different resource and environmental constraint degrees from the perspectives of space and quantification in consideration of socioeconomic and resource environmental fa ctors.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is an increment in both urbanization level and non-agricultural population scale in central Jilin Province,but not all prefecture-level cities followed the same change trend.The urbanization level of most counties in the south part has been reduced,and the size of non-agricultural population decreased in most counties of the study area.There is a weak spatial correlation among the counties in urbanization level,and the overall difference among the counties in urbanization level is decreasing,and the difference among the counties in the north part is relatively small.The overall difference in the non-agricultural population scale among the counties shows a "N" type fluctuation,and there are too man y small size counties and too few medium size counties in central Jilin Province.Counties with relatively large scale of urban construction land in total or per capita are mainly distributed in north part,and the percentage of urban construction land in municipal districts is obviously higher than that of other counties.The expansion intensity of central part is relatively large,the south part is medium,and the north part is relatively small.The counties with high expansion speed are mainly distribute d in the prefecture-level cities of Changchun,Liaoyuan and Tonghua,the expansion speed of other counties is relatively low.The expansion scale of the central part is relatively large,the one of the southeast part is medium,and the one of the northwest part is relatively small.Most of the newly-added urban construction land is converted from arable land and rural land,especially from arable land.(2)Urban construction land supply analysis takes into account both urbanization development and the protection of resources and environment,and analyzes the scale and spatial distribution of available urban construction land under different resource and environmental constraint degrees from the perspective of "development-constraint".The scale of available urban construction land of central Jilin Province in scenarios of high,medium and low resource and environmental constraint degree is 1893.28 km2,2024.17 km2 and 2130.79 km2,the abundance of the prefecture-level cities of Changchun,Jilin and Siping is significantly higher than that of Songyuan,Tonghua and Liaoyuan,and the abundance of counties in the north part is higher than that in the south part.The per capita of available urban construction land of central Jilin Province in three scenarios is 92.70 m2,99.11 m2 and 104.33 m2,most of the counties are with small per capita scale,and mainly distributed in the south part,and only municipal districts and some counties in north part are with large per capita scale.The percentage of available urban construction land of central Jilin Province in three scenarios is 1.96%,2.09% and 2.20%,the one of municipal districts and some counties in the prefecture-level cities of Changchun and Siping is obviously higher than that of other counties.(3)Urban construction land demand analysis predicts the limit demand scale of urban construction land in the mature period of urbanization through the forecast of urban population and the setting of the scale of urban construction per capita based on the limit thinking.The urbanization of central Jilin Province will reach the mature stage in 2081,and urban construction land limit demand scale of central Jilin Province is 1962.48 km2,the limit scale of the prefecture-level cities of Changchun,Jilin and Siping is 823.50 km2,328.20 km2 and 315.32 km2,respectively;and the limit scale of the prefecture-level cities of Songyuan,Tonghua and Liaoyuan is 287.52 km2,127.41 km2 and 80.53 km2,respectively.The limit demand scale of counties with high urbanization level is relatively large,and the limit demand scale of counties in north part is generally larger than that in the south part.(4)Urban construction land guarantee is analyzed from the two aspects of absolute guarantee and relative guarantee based on the analys is results of supply and demand of urban construction land.Based on the analysis results of urban construction guarantee,two optimization schemes are applied to optimize the future pattern of urban development of central Jilin province,including the schemes of guarantee degree consistent inside the prefecture-level city and guarantee degree consistent among prefecture-level cities.As for absolute guarantee,the available urban construction land of central Jilin Province can accommodate 16.63 million,17.78 million and 18.72 million urban population in scenarios of high,medium and low resource and environmental constraint degree.The absolute guarantee ability of the prefecture-level cities of Changchun and Jilin is high,Siping and Songyuan is medium,L iaoyuan and Tonghua is low,and the high,medium and low ability prefecture-level cities can accommodate about 65%,25% and 10% urban population of central Jilin Province.The absolute guarantee ability of municipal districts and some counties in the prefecture-level cities of Changchun and Siping is absolutely higher than that of other counties.As for relative guarantee,the urban construction land demand of central Jilin Province can not be guaranteed in scenario of high resource and environmental constraint degree,and can be guaranteed in scenarios of medium and low resource and environmental constraint degree.The urban construction land demand of the prefecture-level cities of Changchun,Jilin and Songyuan can be guaranteed in three scenarios,and the one of the prefecture-level cities of Siping,Songyuan and Tonghua can not be guaranteed in three scenarios.The guarantee degree of the prefecture-level cities of Changchun and Jilin is 1.04,the one of Liaoyuan is 1.02,and the one of Siping,Songyuan and Tonghua is 1.00 under the optimization scheme of guarantee degree consistent inside prefecture-level city.The guarantee degree of all prefecture-level cities and counties is 1.02 under the optimization scheme of guarantee degree consistent among prefecture-level cities.Under the two optimization schemes,the prefecture-level city of Changchun is the main area to accept the urban population that need to be transferred,over 80% of the transferred population is transferred into Changchun,and over 70% of the transferred population is transferred out from the prefecture-level city of Songyuan.The spatial distribution pattern of urban population under the two schemes is basically the same,the urban population of the counties in the north part is larger than that in the south part,and counties with large urban population are mainly distributed in the prefecture-level cities of Changchun and Siping.