The Reasearch On New Urbanization And Civilization With Welfare Constraints In China

After the past 30 years of rapid urbanization development in China,the deep changes have taken place in both macro and micro economic environment.This objectively requires China to put out a new different path of urbanization development,in which the core is "individual urbanization",namely the urbanization development should pay more attention to the equality of welfare,especially the welfare equality of the large amount of agricultural transfer population and their civilization.In this paper,we focus on welfare elements in urbanization,study on China's new urbanization and civilization on the theory discussion and empirical research under the constraints of welfare.This paper follows the "welfare constraints(macro and micro)-old pattern of urbanization leads to the plight-connotation of new urbanization(civilization)and development direction " overall logic,along the "literature summarize-theory review and build-development status and level measurement-macro and micro empirical explanation-proposed strategy" writing lines,and do the study with different research methods,such as mechanism analysis,mathematical model,cutting-edge empirical models and so on.The main research method,content and conclusions are as follows:At the first,in the theoretical research part,this paper reviews the classic theories of urbanization,expounds the connotation of new urbanization theory,employed a model of civilization theory with welfare elements.The research results show that,given China's special national conditions,the system and urbanization development history,the "people-oriented" new urbanization needs to consider the welfare of the agricultural transfer population,at present welfare factors are not only the constraints of new urbanization development,but also the core of new urbanization in the future.Through comparative static analysis,the results show that the ascension of urban incomes and comprehensive welfare level both contribute to the level of civilization,and the ascension of rural welfare level is not conducive to the civilization level,the impact of technology level on civilization is uncertain.Based on theoretical analysis,the paper carried out empirical research respectively from four dimensions,which include the status quo and level measure,macro welfare perspective,meso welfare perspective and micro welfare perspective in the subsequent four chapters.Then,the paper expounds current situation of urbanization development and difficulties fromtwo aspects of qualitative and quantitative,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The qualitative analysis shows that since reform and opening up,China's urbanization level continues to rise,but behind the rapid development of urbanization,there are some prominent problems which formed the practical difficulties in the development of urbanization,such as low civilization level,unbalanced development,out-sync of land urbanization and population urbanization,insufficient supply of urban public services and welfare and so on.(2)The quantitative research based on factor analysis shows,between 1996 and 2013,the population,economy,society,infrastructure,innovation and research steadily promote the development of China's urbanization level.But during the period,resources and environment index continues falling,became the main factor of restricting the urbanization development and quality improvement.(3)Another research based on multi-level analysis shows China's civilization level is 53.7% in 2015,which is lower than urbanization rate of permanent residents,but higher than urbanization rate of census register population.At the same time,the civilization level shows significant imbalance between different sub-index and different agricultural transfer population.The paper employed TVP_VAR model to study the time-varying characteristics of the effect of urbanization development on economic growth speed and quality based on the macro welfare perspective and qualitative analysis,the conclusions show:(1)In both short-term and long-term,urbanization plays a positive role on promoting economic growth speed and quality,but since2005,the effect has been weakening,the results are contrary with classical "S" urbanization development theory.(2)From the perspective of urban construction,urban social development and infrastructure index have obvious positive effect on promoting urbanization quality.(3)Under the new nomal,urbanization still can be used as the engine of economic growth,but the effect is not only weaker than that in rapid economic growth period,but also weaker in economic crisis period,especially in the long run,its positive effect weakened significantly.Based on the meso welfare perspective,the paper qualitatively analyses the influence mechanism of urbanization on urban and rural income gap,consumption gap and consumption level,then the paper integrated employed TVP_VAR,PVAR and PSTR model on empirical research with the time series data and panel data,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)urbanization expands the gap between the urban and rural areas in the short term,but in the long run will help to narrow the gap;In the rapid growth period,the effect is relatively weak,in recession period,the effect is obvious;In the process of urbanization in China,the income gap between urban and rural areas is still the most important reason of the consumption gap,at present the relationship between income and consumption gap is relatively stable.(2)With PVAR model,the empirical analysis shows that the promoting effect of urbanization to household consumption is more obvious in urban than that in rural.(3)Based on the analysis of the PSTR model,it shows that with the increase of household income,the effects of urbanization on the level of consumption shows the characteristics of relatively flat "S" type,the "distortion" effect of urbanization on consumption synchronous growth is mainly caused by household income gap between the urban and rural areas.Based on the micro welfare perspective,this paper uses sen's theory and micro survey data,empirically analyses of the effects of agricultural transfer population welfare on civilization and counter-urbanization tendency.The empirical results based on Ordered probit model show that:(1)The improvement of main welfare element can effectively promote civilization level of agricultural transfer population,and reduce the tendency of counter-urbanization.(2)In the process of civilization,agricultural transfer population shows obvious "appeal tendency" and "group effect".For the point of "appeal tendency",children's schooling,political participation and vocational training are more important for civilization and counter-urbanization;For the point of "group effect ",the effects of income and welfare level on civilization are more obvious for that with high income and young groups.(3)The welfare appeal of the current agricultural transfer population has transferred from income and social security to social opportunity and political participation.In the last chapter,the paper divided agricultural transfer population into four categories,analyzes the civilization characteristics and existing problems,and judge the stage of civilization,on the basis the paper put forward suggestions of classification civilization.the results show that classification civilization is the key of solving civilization plight,logically and objectively require to realize " economic civilization " and " individual civilization " gradually.The new urbanization is the inevitable logic and trend of China's economic and social development,civilization is the way to build a moderately prosperous society.The paper embarks from the perspective of welfare,carried out a series of theoretical exploration and empirical research,provided a new thought of understanding China's urbanization.The paper holds that,in the future,China's urbanization should pay more attention to the multi-dimensional,multi-agent and regional welfare equality,and develop a new way of urbanization with efficiency and fairness.