The Approach To Measure And Predict The Description Of Urban Agglomeration’s Space

Urban agglomeration,the product of urban development,has gradually become the carrier of social development.At present,unreasonable spatial distributing,blind political directions and the contradiction between land and population are all the objective problems that the development of urban agglomeration have to be confronted with.The central premise of solving these problems is to understand urban agglomeration scientifically and rationally.Existing research on the measure and simulation methods of urban agglomeration overemphasized the reductionism.They ignored and destroyed the self-organizing structures that the laws of naturally growing can not be reflected.Moreover,they included plenty of subjective consideration.This study aimed at avoiding these problems and considering how to establish cognitive perspective of urban agglomeration.From the viewpoint of complex systems,a scientific cognition system of urban agglomeration and its development was established in this paper.Then,objective measure method of spatial space of urban agglomeration was explored based on the cognitive perspective of urban agglomeration.Followed by the laws of self-organization evolution,this research attempted to build prediction model of spatial space of urban agglomeration based on the uncertainty theory and allometric growth theory to realize the predictive measure of land use in the space ofurban agglomeration,thus providing reference for the prediction of urban agglomeration development,precaution of policy risk and plan making.This research carried out basically following the order as objective world-world view-methodology-practice.Firstly,on the basis of exposition of research background,we figured out the scientific issues which need to be solved,and illustrated the significance of this topic.Then according to the consecution of research ideas,we summarized the current state of the evolution of urban agglomeration,complex systems,fractal city,uncertainty theory and their value for applying to this research,and the specific research process was proposed.Secondly,starting from the understanding of the objective world,we analyzed two kinds of methodology-reductionism and the thought which regards the complex system as an unity and beyond reductionism-that appeared in the scientific research history from the perspective of the scientific methodology.And then we illustrated the proper world view for the urban agglomeration research,i.e.the view of complex system and natural growth,and presented the measure route of spatial space of urban agglomeration.Thirdly,from the cognition of "complex systems of urban agglomeration",considering that fractal is a good measurement for complexity,we proposed three methods to measure the spatial space of urban agglomeration:the assembly-radius measure method of the Space Contiguous-zone in urban agglomeration,the identifiable-min-unit-based measure method of entity space of urban agglomeration and the spatial-structure stability method of land use type.Meanwhile,from the viewpoint of "natural growth of urban agglomeration",using the bridging function of allometric growth relationship that existed in the whole and parts and effective measure of grey system that works on uncertainty,we designed two methods to predict the land use data that used to describe the spatial space of urban agglomeration.The first one is allometric-growth-relationship-based grey prediction method of urban agglomeration land use,and another is the method of inversion for predicting the urban agglomeration land use based on the grey prediction of fractal features of time series.Finally,in order to verify the method of measuring and predicting the spatial space of urban agglomeration,we took the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration as research area to recognize the Space Contiguous-zone and entity space,and analyzed the evolution of Space Contiguous-zone and spatial-structure stability of land use type in the Space Contiguous-zone.Then we predicted the land use situation in spatial space of urban agglomeration in the next limited period by the two prediction method.The results indicate that the methods that we proposed are feasible and reliable,and the cognition of urban agglomeration in this paper-complex systems of urban agglomeration-is reasonable and scientific.This research answers the question that how to establish cognitive perspective of urban agglomeration,achieve the scheduled goals,and provide helpful reference for the related areas of research,such like prediction of urban agglomeration development,management and control of policy risk and decision-making of urban planning.