Research On Measurement And Development Countermeasures Of Consumption Potential Of Rural Residents In Western China

Although the consumption issues have existed since the birth of human society,it does not mean that the consumption theories are well-considered.On the contrary,so far,the academic understandings and researches of the consumption issues are still going on.In China,how to expand the rural residents' consumption demand is a priority in the consumption issues.As the growth of economy is into high-middle speed,improving the rural residents' quality of life,whose important representation is consumption indicators such as consumption level,structure and so on,is still an important goal under the new normal economic development.And the rural resident's consumption associated with economic growth,and the supply reform.So the measure and evaluation of consumption potential becomes the key point to expand the rural residents' consumption demand.In 2015,the number of western rural residents accounted for 13.85%of the total scale of urban and rural residents in China.But its consumption expenditures accounted for only 6.09%of the total residents',and the gap of urban-rural consumption level in western is higher than the national average level.So it is urgency to research and settle the expansion issue of western rural residents'consumption demand.In view of these,the thesis,with the perspective of consumption potential,builds a theoretical framework to research the rural residents' consumption potential issue,and combines with related data to measure and evaluate the western rural residents' consumption potential,to master the change law of consumption potential.Then the thesis designs countermeasures to develop the consumption potential,encouraging consumption potential transform into consumer demand,in order to upgrade the western rural residents' quality of life and promote the sustainable and healthy development of western economy.The thesis,whose research idea is "definition of consumption potential,measurement and evaluation of rural residents' consumption potential,development of rural residents' consumption potential",based on the consumption theory of Marxism and western mainstream,defines the connotation of the rural residents' consumption potential in scientifically,and builds rural residents' relative consumption potential measure model,absolute consumption potential measure model and comprehensive evaluation index system.In combination with relevant data from 1991 to 2015 of the western rural residents' consumption,the thesis uses state space time-varying parameter model to measure the relative and absolute consumption potential level in 1991-2025 and structure in 1993-2025 of western rural residents' per capita and in combination with 2014 data of rural residents in China,figures out the rural residents per capita consumption potential index in western,middle and eastern province,and then gives the comparison between the western,middle and eastern provincial consumption potential index.In all,thesis draws main conclusions as follows:Firstly,the thesis defines the connotation of rural residents' consumption potential.The rural residents' consumption potential is consumption demand contained in the rural residents,which has not yet been released,and is not only the precipitation,but also the dynamic changes of consumption demand.According to different reference object,it can be divided into relative and absolute consumption potential;According to the time happens or not,it can be divided into stored and future consumption potential.Secondly,the thesis measures the consumption potential level of the western rural residents'.Its per capita relative and absolute consumption potential level in 1991-2015 changed in positive and negative fluctuation,which means that expanding the rural residents' consumption policy has effected;and in 2018-2025 is increasing year by year,which are higher than the level of urban residents' under the restriction of equal income.Thirdly,the thesis measures the consumption potential structure of the western rural residents'.Its necessity,enjoyment and developmental level of consumption potential in 1993-2015 changed in positive and negative fluctuation;and in 2018-2025 is expanding year by year.It means that,the consumption structure in 1993-2015 optimized from necessity to enjoyment,and developmental consumption willingness has been suppressed;in 2018-2025,the difficulty to optimize the consumption structure is still in developmental consumption.Fourthly,the thesis evaluates the western rural residents' consumption potential.The evaluation index system of rural residents'consumption potential includes three subsystems:consumption ability,consumer needs and consumption conditions.The consumption potential index and its clustering results show that the provincial consumption potential index in western are different:Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang are in high level;Guangxi,Chongqing,Sichuan etc.six provinces are in middle level;Guizhou,Yunnan and Gansu are in low level.Comparing with the middle and eastern provincial index,the western residents' consumption potential is lower,which are restricted mainly by consumeption demand and consumption conditions.Fifthly,the thesis proposes the goals to develop the western rural residents'consumption potential.The development should not only be a single process from consumer need to demand,but a process including the cultivation of sustainable consumption potential.The goals to develop the western rural residents' consumption potential,therefore,should include three directions as follows:the release of the precipitated consumption potential,the cultivation and release of future consumption potential.And,because the western residents' consumption potential is lower than the middle and eastern provincial index,the cultivation of future consumption potential is an important development goal.Sixthly,the thesis proposes the development countermeasures of western rural residents' consumption potential,including promoting consumption ability and expanding consumer demand and improving consumption conditions,what is important is that the countermeasures should have provincial difference.Meanwhile the development should coordinate the moderate proportion between cultivation and release of consumption potential,to establish a long-term mechanism of rural residents'consumption growth.The thesis contributed the research theoretical framework of consumtion potential to expand and deepen the consumption theories.The measure and evaluation comprehensive of the western rural residents' consumption level and structure are helpful to find out the western rural residents' consumption situation,improve their quality of life,promoting their sharing the modernization;to expand the rural residents'consumption demand,bridging urban-rural consumption gap,promoting the urban-rural integration;to develop the rural residents' consumption potential scientifically,playing positive effects of consumption associations,pulling the new normal development of western economy.