Study On Influence Of Urbanization On Landslides Susceptibility And Efficiency Of Prevention And Control In China

In the middle and long term development of the future,urbanization is an important trend of social and economic development in China,which is the largest developing country in the world.On one hand,urbanization has positive externality,which promotes the sustainable development of regional economy and society.On the other hand,urbanization may generate negative externality,namely increasing the landslide susceptibility by constructing the built-up area and the traffic network.Although the government can reduce the impact of the negative externality through inputting reasonable landslides prevention and control measures,the imperfectness of assessment method of government work and the incomplete information of landslides may make the scale of landslides prevention and control insufficient or exceeding the optimal scale,which reduce the prevention and control efficiency of landslides.This study analyze the impact mechanism of urbanization on landslides susceptibility and the efficiency of prevention and control.Based on the analysis results,the policy recommendations to decrease landslides susceptibility in the process of urbanization are put forward,which provide a decision-making basis for the construction of ecological civilization and ?Beautiful China?,and the prevention and control of geological disasters in China.Based on the panel date of 29 provinces from 2003-2015,by building the panel model,this study analyze the relationship between occurrence times of landslides and influence factors including the percentage of built-up area and road density at the national and regional level to advance the static effect of urbanization on landslides susceptibility;Under the premise of confirming the significant static effect of urbanization on landslides,this study construct panel VAR model to further analyze the dynamic effects of urbanization on landslides susceptibility.On the basis of susceptibility research,this study analyze the efficiency of landslides prevention and control and influence factors by SBM-DEA model and Tobit model from the angle of government main body.Based on the above research,the policy suggestions for the prevention and control of landslides are put forward.The innovation of this paper include three aspects:(1)The percentage of built-up area and road density,which is the index of land urbanization,is considered in the landslides susceptibility analysis framework.Present literature of landslides susceptibility mainly focus on the natural factors of landslides,including the precipitation and earthquake.This study analyze the influence of urbanization on landslides through percentage of built-up area and road density,which is important to the prevention and control for landslides in China.(2)The quantitative mechanism of the influence of urbanization on landslides susceptibility is explored.The problem of inputting landslides prevention and control measures can be found by studying on the static and dynamic influence of constructing of built-up area and road on landslides in the same year and in the future.However,related literature mainly focus on qualitative research.(3)A DEA model considering the desirable outputs and undesirable outputs is constructed,and it is applied to evaluate the efficiency of prevention and control to geological hazards.Because the occurrence of a disaster is not absolutely avoidable,the outputs of disaster prevention and control measures must contain desirable outputs and undesirable outputs.However,present literature on the evaluation of the efficiency of disaster prevention and control select the BCC-DEA model,which can only consider undesirable outputs.