Research On The Factors And Potential Of Trade Between U.S. And Emerging Economies

Since the 1990s,emerging economies have risen rapidly.It carrying two thirds of the world's economic growth and became an important force in global economic growth.The outstanding performance of emerging economies began to attract the attention of Western developed countries.The US government regards emerging economies as a new star in the field of trade development.Entering the 21st century,although the US economic strength is declining,but the total trade between the United States and emerging economies has increased significantly at this stage.The US as the largest economies and emerging economies as the most potential trading entity,the causes and the sustainability of their trade growth are related to the economic and trade relations between them.And will largely determine the direction of world economic and trade development,as well as determine the depth and breadth of global economic and trade cooperation.By studying and analyzing the influencing factors and potential of trade"growth between U.S.and Emerging Economies,it will have an important theoretical and practical significance for develop the economic of themselves,and even promote the future global economic and trade changes.This paper makes a research on the trade development between United States and emerging economies with the panoramic and multi-angle perspective.On the basis of'combing relevant international trade theories and trade growth mechanisms,this paper analyzes the growth of trade between the United States and the emerging economies from the growth stage,the growth structure and the growth conditions,and makes the classification of the types of trade firstly.Secondly,the CMS model is used to decompose and measure the growth of the trade between the United States and the emerging economies from the perspective of the overall perspective and the emerging economies.From the aspects of demand factors,structural factors and competitiveness factors to analysis the trade growth.Thirdly,we add non-economic factors such as trade system arrangement and regional economic integration on the basis of subdivision of demand factors,structural factors and competitiveness factors.And this paper uses the gravitational model to analyze the influencing factors from the perspective of the overall perspective and the emerging economies.Finally,we use the extended gravitational model to measure and analyze the import and export trade potential of the US and emerging economies.And put forward the strategic choice of the construction of inclusive trade relations between China and the United States.The main conclusions are the following:First,the decomposition of the trade growth between the US and emerging economies shows that demand factors and structural factors are very significant in US exports to emerging economies,and which are common to promote the growth of export trade.In the import trade,the demand factor is the main driving force for growth.The competition effect has a relatively weak impact on the import and export trade of the US and the emerging economies.Therefore,on the whole,the import and export trade of the United States and the emerging economies is more obviously affected by the market boom,and their competitiveness also needs to be improved.In terms of specific emerging economies,the demand factor for labor and technology-intensive emerging economies is the main source of trade growth between the United States and emerging economies,but the growth effect by the demand of resource-intensive emerging economies is even more pronounced than labor-intensive emerging economies.Second,the economic scale has a significant effect on the import and export trade between US and emerging economies,and the inhibitory effect of the trade costs such as the distance,the tariff level and the non-tariff barriers is also obvious.The differences in per capita income,demographic factors,regional institutional arrangements and economic systems have a certain impact on trade growth,but relatively small.For different types of emerging economies,factors such as resource export capacity have had a significant impact on the US import of the resource-intensive emerging economies,while the level of employment and wage levels have an impact on the import trade between the US and labor-intensive emerging economies significantly.Thirdly,According to the calculation of trade potential,the import and export trade between the US and the resource intensive emerging economies are belong to the potential huge and development models,and it indicate that there is still some potential to be tapped.While the import and export trade between the US and the labor-intensive emerging economies are mainly in the form of potential development and potential re-modeling.It shows that the US has a very close trade relationship with such emerging economies,and is partly inclined to over trade.Therefore,we should further seek new growth point of trade in order to better promote the sustainable growth of trade between them.For China,as the largest labor-intensive emerging economies,the trade potential between China and the US is belong to over trade.Therefore,it is urgent to optimize the trade structure and tap new growth points.Fourth,China should actively build an inclusive trade relationship between China and the US based on endogenous and exogenous conditions,so as to achieve sustainable trade between China and the US.