Research On Industrial Structure Adjustment Of Shanxi Province Based On Multiplier Model

As an important energy and resources base in China,Shanxi province has long been dependent on the development of the coal industry to promote the economic development of the whole province.This is a typical kind of resource-based economy.With the gradual exhaustion of coal resources in Shanxi and the arising of environmental pollution,the development pattern of the resource-oriented economy should be adjusted and transferred,especially the industrial structure.However,the effect of industrial restructuring and the future trend of industries are still important issues of Shanxi province.Based on the theories of industrial economics,this paper analyzes the development history,the current situation and the policy evolution of industrial structure in Shanxi Province,and evaluates the effect of industrial structure adjustment.With the multiplier model of social accounting matrix,this paper studies the relationship among the leading industry,the continuous industry and other industries in Shanxi province and their internal relations.Meanwhile,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the adjustment of industrial structure and gives some suggestions on the development direction of the leading and continuous industry in Shanxi province.The suggestions are: working on the development of the continuous industry,advancingthe industrial structure,reforming the leading industry,upgrading coal-related industries,accelerating the development of other industries,improving the service industry,giving priorities to the development of industries with high relevance,minimizing direct administrative intervention from the government,and guiding industrial restructuring through formulating industrial policies.The main innovations in this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the Shanxi input-output table and relavent statistics,the social accounting matrix of Shanxi in 2002,2007 and 2012 has been worked out.(2)In view of the multiplier model,the trend of the industrial structure change in Shanxi province and the impact of the industrial association are analyzed.The author finds out that the uneven development of the Hertz Seaman in Shanxi Province.(3)This paper studies the influencing factors of industrial structure adjustment from the supply aspect of labor and capital inputs,and from the demand aspect of urban and rural residents' consumption.And some policy suggestions on adjusting the industrial structurein Shanxi are put forward as well.