Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Human Capital Expenditure

The aging of population has become a new normal trend in global population development.Its impact on economic development is sustained and profound.According to the UN forecast,by 2020,the population of people aged 65 and over in China will reach 167 million,accounting for 24%of the world's elderly population.With the acceleration of the agingin our country and the continuous low natural population growth rate,the "demographic dividend window" of unlimited supply of labor force will come to an end.Under the increasingly severe population aging situation,by increasing the investment in human capital successfully crossed the"middle-income trap,and maintained a sustained and healthy growth of human capital has important theoretical and practical significance.The impact of population on economic growth is very important both in terms of production and consumption.The rapid development of the past 40 years of reform and opening up has benefited from a huge demographic bonus.Therefore,the aging population structure will bring more economic growth in the traditional theory of economic growth,people pay more attention to the quantity of population instead of quality of population.In the theory of new economic growth,the quality of population,especially the promotion effect of human capital on economic growth.The essay focuses on the following issues:The mechanism of the interaction between population transition,human capital and economic growth:Does the aging of population necessarily hinder the economic growth?How to grasp the timing of population transition and promote the accumulation of human capital?Macroeconomic impact of population aging and population reduction on investment-type consumption of human capital,is the path of accumulation of knowledge capital and healthy capital consistent?The micro-impact of population transition on investment-type consumption of human capital,and the demand difference of investment-type consumption of human capital for different age groups.Under the framework of endogenous economic growth theory,this dissertationdissertation explores the impact of population transition on investment-type consumption of human capital from two aspects.The empirical results of macroeconomic data show that both public education expenditure and public health expenditure have a ratcheting effect.However,the impact of current household consumption on household-based investment in human capital is different.The impact of population aging on government education expenditure,government health expenditure,family education expenditure and family health expenditure is different.The deepening of the aging population will reduce government public education expenditure,increase family education expenditure,increase government public education expenditure and reduce family health expenditure.According to the empirical results from the micro-data of China Family Tracing Survey(CFPS),the investment-based consumption of human capital shows obvious characteristics of age.Individual education needs reach the peak of 15-19 years of age and 40-44 years of age in the life cycle.Individuals The results show that the demand for investment in human capital will change with the changes in the age structure of the population.Therefore,the education industry and the general health industry should Respect the trend of changes in consumer demand,in order to better meet people's material and cultural needs.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign literatures and the policy research on the improvement of human capital proposed by domestic and foreign scholars,this dissertation starts with the investment-oriented consumption of human capital The dissertation explores the mechanism and channels of the impact of China's population transition on economic growth.It combines the theoretical model with the empirical data to rationally analyze the population transition and investment in human capital.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:Aging of the age structure of the population is an irreversible trend in human development.The arrival of aging society will bring about a certain negative impact on society and economy.However,amplify the negative effects of aging is not a rational decision,we should not ignored the positive effects of the aging.At this stage,China's economic development is mainly driven by investment.It is necessary to shift from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven,and it is necessary to increase the accumulation of human capital and strengthen investment in education and healthy capital.Change people's traditional ideas,vigorously develop education,strengthen basic investment in health and hygiene,increase the overall quality of laborers,and maximize the return on investment in human capital;education and health are important factors in the formation of human capital,both in terms of human capital stock and the contribution of economic growth is undifferentiated.Therefore,when the government formulates policies to increase investment in human capital investment and speed up the accumulation of human capital,it must not lose sight of others,resulting in an imbalance in the structure of human capital;due to the two-sided nature of the impact of aging on economic development,Different investment strategies have different investment strategies to improve human capital investment;educational capital investment consumption has obvious stage characteristics.In the future,the government should strengthen the investment in on-the-job education and continuously increase the education capital accumulation in the whole life cycle.Health-capital investment consumption will further increase.In 2015,China will fully liberalize its two-child policy.In the future,if we maintain the current human capital investment-consuming habits,the demand in China's human capital market will show a growing demand for health care expenditure,but the demand for education,culture and entertainment is showing a downward trend.Finally,on the basis of empirical analysis,focused on the actual situation of China's investment in human capital investment,put forward the countermeasures to improve the human capital expenditure and promote the accumulation of human capital:to create a harmonious aging social public opinion,and actively explore the socio-economic development of aging Strengthen tax support policies to promote investment in human capital investment;strengthen long-term investment in human capital;strengthen long-term investment in human capital;change the mode of economic growth;implement the "Healthy China 2030" strategic plan;pay attention to the accumulation of human capital by healthy capital;Promote the role;continue to increase investment in public health expenditure,improve the structure of public expenditure;deepen the structural reform of the supply side,and effectively release the consumer needs of the entire life cycle.