A Regional Study On China's Endowment Insurance Income And Expenditure Under The Background Of Aging Population

China's entry into an aging society at the turn of the century,coupled with the family planning and the significant improvement of medical care,has led to a gradual increase in the number of the elderly population,an increase in average life expectancy,and a gradual decrease in the growth rate of the working population.This has led to a change in the income and expenditure of China's old-age insurance.At the national level,China's pension insurance income is far more than expenditure,and the balance at year-end is increasing every year,but the growth rate of the balance at year-end is declining year by year.At the provincial level,the situation varies.After eliminating the financial subsidies,nearly half of the provinces in China are facing the predicament of over-expenditure of pensions.Even if financial subsidies are included in the calculation,Heilongjiang province still faces the dilemma of not making ends meet in the current period,and the balance at year-end of the province's pension is negative in 2016.The situation that the provinces cannot meet their expenditure will become more serious in the future.However,the pension of eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang are in good condition,and the balance at year-end is more.Since the basic old-age insurance system was established in 1997,the research on pension started later in China than abroad.Considering the special situation that China has not dealt with the historical debt during the transition of the old-age insurance system and that the old-age pension has not achieved overall national planning,domestic scholars generally believe that the number of the elderly population,historical debt,human capital and the degree of economic development are the main factors causing differences between provinces.At the same time,most of them focus on the relationship of endowment insurance and economic growth,and relatively few on empirical research of exploring the factors affecting the income and expenditure structure of endowment insurance,and there are few literatures to explore endowment insurance from the perspective of human capital.This paper holds that the aging of the population and human capital affect the structure of pension income and expenditure by affecting the number and amount of pensioners respectively.Based on previous studies,this paper makes use of provincial panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2006 to 2016.At the same time,we uses the dynamic panel GMM estimation method to make an empirical study on the impact of population aging and human capital on pension insurance revenue and expenditure.The results show that the aging of population and human capital have a significant impact on the income and expenditure of pension.The aging of population increases the per capita pension contribution,decreases the per capita pension expenditure,and human capital has a positive impact on the pension income and expenditure,increasing the per capita pension contribution and expenditure.In view of the above findings,this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations in order to supplement the previous studies and provide some thinking paths under the background of China's macroeconomic transformation.