| With the development of the global pharmaceutical economy,more and more active compounds have been discovered and research of drug effect targets have become more and more clear.Countries all over the world are paying more and more attention to the development of new drugs.However,at the same time,the difficulty of the development of new drugs is also gradually increasing,and companies’ investment in the development of new drugs is also increasing.However,the level of China’s new drug R&D output and incentive mechanism still has a big gap compared with developed countries.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the factors and incentive policies that affect China’s new drug R&D output to promote the development of China’s pharmaceutical industry.In this paper,the factors influencing China’s new drug R&D are analyzed by means of literature research and other methods.In order to explore the influence of various factors on China’s new drug R&D output,four non-structural methods were established to establish a vector autoregressive model(VAR)model.Cointegration test and Granger causality test were used to analyze the relationship between variables.Based on the VAR model,we use impulse response function and variance decomposition to further analyze the impact of investment,innovation,support,and policy strengths on China’s new drug R&D output.From the perspective of input capacity,the results show that the change in the proportion of capital investment from government has a positive impact on the R&D output of new drugs especially on knowledge and production;the increase in the R&D output of new drug in China has certain dependencies on the increasing proportion of R&D personnel;The volatility impact of R&D staff input has a certain short-term impact on China’s new drug market output,but tends to be stable in the long-term period.At the same time,according to the research results,this paper analyzes the current situation and existing problems of government funds input and personnel input,and puts forward corresponding Suggestions.As for government investment:First,to strengthen the supervision of the efficiency of government investment;Second,targeted increase in government funding;Thirdly,the government’s capital investment needs to be improved;Fourth,the government funding needs the combination of prior incentives and incentives afterwards;Fifth,government funding should be combined with other financing methods.For personnel investment:first,establish a talent attraction mechanism;second,establish a flexible talent flow mechanism;third,establish a sound personnel training mechanism;fourth,establish a reasonable talent incentive mechanism;Fifth,give full play to the government’s guidance effects.From the point of view of innovation ability,it was found that there was a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between enterprise integrated innovation ability and introduction,absorbing and reinovation capability,and the knowledge output of new drug R&D,and market output;and the ability of enterprise integrated innovation and introduction,digestion,and absorption to reinnovate are the Granger causes of the knowledge output of R&D of new drugs and market output;changes in integrated innovation capabilities have a significant impact on new drug R&D output especially on knowledge output.At the same time,this paper analyzes the status and existing problems of China’s pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises’ integrated innovation capability,and draws on foreign experience to put forward corresponding policy recommendations:First,increase the investment in integrated innovation;Second,develop an integrated innovation model that suits the national conditions;Third,establish an integrated innovation and cooperation platform;fourth,play the role of the government’s policy guidance.From the perspective of supporting capacity,it was found that there was a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the number and profit rate of enterprises and the R&D knowledge output of new drugs,and the market output,which are the Granger causes of the R&D market output of new drugs;the number of enterprises has a negative effect on the R&D output of new drugs,which means when the number of enterprises increases,the output decreases,and vice versa;Enterprise profitability will have a positive impact on the R&D output of new drugs,which means increasing profitability of enterprises will increase the R&D output of new drugs.At the same time,this paper focuses on the analysis of the current status and existing problems of profitability of China pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises,and put forward to corresponding recommendations:first,improve the ability of enterprise technological innovation;second,increase the concentration of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises;third,relevant government departments further optimize the regulatory policies for new drug R&D,such as registration approval,pricing,and medical insurance and so on;Fourth,Enterprises should actively respond to the adjustment of government regulatory policies.Judging from the degree of policy,this paper found that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between enterprise tax bearing rate,intellectual property protection rate and R&D knowledge output of new drugs and market output;Enterprise taxation rate is the Granger cause of the R&D market output of new drugs.The enterprise tax bearing rate will have a negative impact on the R&D output of new drugs,which means when tax bearing rate increases,the output will be reduced,and vice versa;The intellectual property protection will have a positive impact on R&D output of new drugs,which means the increasing intellectual property protection degree will increase the R&D output of new drugs.Meanwhile,an analysis was made on China’s incentive policies such as tax incentive system and intellectual property protection,etc.,and made corresponding suggestions based on foreign experiences.As for preferential tax policies:First,tax policy needs to be more targeted and systematic;second,various taxes preference should be distributed scientifically and systematically;thirdly,the tax incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises should be improved;fourth,the incentives for tax preference objects must be sustained;and fifth,the preparation of pre-tax incentives needs to be strengthened.As for the intellectual property protection system:First,it is recommended that a large number of incentive policies should not be introduced blindly,the patent policy for incentivizing service inventions needs to be adjusted,and that innovation incentives for Chinese medicine and bio-pharmaceuticals need to be strengthened;secondly,the patent drug manufacturers and generic drug manufacturers should be weighed in a comprehensive manner to formulate drug patent linkage systems in line with China’s national conditions;thirdly,to fully weigh the relationship between incentive drug innovation and drug accessibility,and formulate a drug protection system in line with China’s national conditions;and fourth,related system and regulations of compulsory licensing of drug patents are to be integrated,and promotion on popularize law education publicity of patent licensing system for drugs is to be intensified. |