Energy Regulation Strategy For Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Power Demand Analysis And Structure Adjustment

As one of the important areas of national development,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is subject to higher energy intensities.single energy consumption structure,and worse atmospheric pollution in recent years.Those factors has become the primary restricting for the sustainable development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.With the steady progress of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region coordinated development,the rapid economic development,population growth,space layout and industrial structure regulation,and the speeding urbanization will further bring huge pressure on regional energy systems.Therefore,in full recognition of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy system,it is desired to make a clear response relation between the regional energy structure adjustment and the environment,and to carry out the research on integration energy system structure optimization adjustment and management,in order to promoting the sustainable development level of regional energy system.Taken the energy system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the main research object,the study focuses on the forecasting model of load demand analysis and the evaluation method of the structure adjustment emission reduction effect on the power supply side,in order to quantify the effect of economic development,industry structure,and pressures of energy saving and emission reduction on regional power demand,propose the evaluation method of regional energy system mitigation effect for evaluating these complex relationships among power structure and pollutants mitigation,and advance the optimization model of regional energy structure adjustment for performing the complex relationship between energy and environmental system.The detailed research contents are including:(1)Based on the comprehensive analysis of social-economic system,energy supply structure,and regional environmental pressures,the study focuses on developing a long term load demand forecasting model based on index decomposition analysis method,analyzing the key driving factors for power demand,and quantitating the influence of economic development,industrial structure,energy conservation and emissions reduction pressure on regional power demand;(2)Based on the large background of "replace coal by electricity" and "replace coal by nature gas" in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,taken the emission of atmospheric pollutants(SO2,NOx)and the greenhouse gas CO2 from the power industry as the main indicators,an environmental effect model of regional power supply-side structure adjustment is established considering the relevance analysis theory to quantify the trend of pollutant emission reduction under the different power structure regulation scenarios;(3)In view of the imbalance of energy supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the excessive proportion of primary energy consumption and the unreasonable energy structure,based on the comprehensive analysis of the social economy and energy environment system in the region and coupling the uncertainty optimization theory,the optimal control model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy structure is established,in order to obtain the energy structure control strategy under different external regulation and pollutant control scenarios,and to provide support for breaking down the barriers and bottlenecks of regional energy structure optimization and regulation.In general,the research of long-term load demand forecasting based on index decomposition analysis method,multiple scenarios analysis for atmospheric pollutants and CO2 emissions reduction effect,and inexact energy system adjustment optimization model keep up with the integrated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and are close to real energy and environmental policies and management strategies.The research is perfecting and abounding in the existed energy system management methods,and provide great valuable support for sustainable development of so-economic and energy-environmental system.