Analysis Of The Energy-saving And Emission-reduction Potential For Transportation In Henan Province Based On LEAP

As energy crisis and environmental pollution being more and moreserious, transportation industry-a high energy consumption industry-is the largestpetrol consumer after manufacturing in the society, and one of the major sources forgreenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. With urbanization, population growth andrapid development of social economy in Henan province, the demands and servicesfor transportation are rising, leading to an increase in energy consumption andenvironmental emissions from transportation.Based on this background, this study analyzed and compared domestic andoverseas energy models and developed a model for energy and environment intransportation depending on LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planningsystem)for Henan Province, a.k.a. LEAP–Henan. According to different serviceobjects, the transportation system in Henan was divided into three categories:passenger service, freight and urban passenger service. Using regression analysis andscenario analysis, this model simulated six scenarios from2010to2030for HenanProvince with specific reference to socio-economic development, governmentalpolicy, traffic structure and technical innovation. The base year is2010, and keyparameters are traffic turnover, energy intensity and emissions factors.Results indicates that, in2030, energy demand in transportation for Henanprovince would be between1394.2~729.98Mtce, and the biggest difference wouldbe664.22Mtce.The least energy demand and environmental emissions would beachieved under comprehensive energy-saving scenario.By2030, energy demand,CO2emissions, NOXemissions, SO2emissions, CO emissions and N2O emissionswould reach729.98Mtce,1446.28Mt,16.69Mt,3604.34kt,34.92Mt and12.85kt,respectively. Compared with Baseline scenario,energy demand, emissions of carbondioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide,carbon monoxide,nitrous oxide were reducedby47.64%,50.82%,45.86%,39.96%,66.64%and47.7%,respectively. This is also thescenario for best energy-saving and emission-reduction. This study also gave suggestions to transportation development in Henanprovince in terms of saving-energy and reducing-emissions.