Research On Early-warning And Emergency Management Of Coal Mine Production Disaster

The disasters of coalmine production spread a wide range with serious damage.Its occurrence mechanism is complicated and changeable,and affected by many factors.The issue covering coalmine production disasters is the priority among priorities of coalmine safety management.How to make effective disaster warnings and what rescue measures to take when coalmine production disasters occur have important significance to the coalmine safety management.Starting with the analysis of the characteristics of coalmine disasters,this paper explores how to improve the technique methods of coalmine production disaster prediction and emergent prevention,and reveals the coalmine disaster evolution law.From the angles of the accuracy and efficiency,coalmine disaster prediction model and coalmine emergent rescue and prevention process are optimized.Constructing the reasonable emergent prevention information model,it aims to prevent prediction model from falling into local optimum and over-fitting,and to strengthen the effectiveness.All should be researched along the logic thread "coalmine production disaster characteristics and coupling relation—construction of early-warning model-emergency treatment process optimization—construction of emergency prevention information system model",the main research contents and results are as follows:1)Statistical Analysis of coalmine production disaster characteristics.The spatial and temporal characteristics of coalmine production disasters should be analyzed from point of statistics,to obtain the distribution trend of coal mine production and its occurrence overview.Then this paper analyzes the coupling relationship between coalmine disasters,and deeply analyzes three kinds of early-warning model of constructing coalmine production disasters.2)Building three early-warning models.Through the artificial intelligence algorithm theory,scientific analyses on impact factors of coal and gas outburst,coal spontaneous combustion and mine water inrush are made.Three models are established including coal and gas outburst prediction model QGA-LSSVM,coal spontaneous prediction model FA-SVM and the mine water inrush source recognition model Logistic-RF.And then make early warning of coalmine production disasters.3)Constructing coal mine disaster emergent prevention system.Through the application of stochastic Petri nets(SPN theory),dynamic discrete model of coalmine emergent plan process is established to optimize coal production disaster emergency prevention process.By the analysis of coal mine emergency operation mechanism(disaster forecast,during treatment,ex post evaluation),this paper improves emergency command and control process and construct coal production disaster emergency prevention information system model.4)Proposing the supporting measures of coal production disaster emergency managementBased on the analysis of the coordination ways among various departments of coal mine production disaster emergency management,the supporting measures of coal production disaster emergency management are put forward from six aspects including emergency command.