| China is one of countries which has more coal mine accidents in the world,it is not only cause a large number of casualties,but also brings the economic loss is up to billions to the country and coal enterprise every year.Therefore,research on the safety early warning of coal mine has great significance in guard against advance,reduce coal mine accidents and decrease disaster loss to the utmost extent,fuzzy theory,set pair analysis theory,grey prediction theory,and other methods have been universally adopted to research various disasters early warning methods of coal mine at present,but due to the particularity of coal industry,namely complicated variable natural geological condition,bad production workplace environment,mine pressure and gas and other uncertainty factors are more,lead to each index factor can not reasonable and accurate quantified for concrete numerical value,and usually be a range value,so the practicality of early warning model is constructed by common mathematical method is poor.Once the accident happened,the emergency rescue capability seems to be very important,it is directly related to whether can timely and effective rescue,whether can ensure the miners casualty and property loss reach to the lowest after disaster happened.Therefore,beforehand understand the size of emergency rescue capability of each coal mine has important reference value for decision making department effective development the rescue work in the future.In this paper,took Da Tong coal mine group for research background,fully considered it involved more influencing factors in safety management process of coal mine,and data general had certain fuzziness,concealment and complexity,maybe exist the situation of deletion information.Therefore,after collected and arranged the safety management data of Da Tong coal mine group and related coal mines,used MATLAB7.0 software to take data processing and mapping comparative analysis,used FAHP method,extension theory,entropy weight theory and trapezoidal Vague set theory to system research on the safety early warning and emergency rescue capability of coal mine and other decision making problems of Da Tong coal mine group,respectively.Mainly completed the work in several aspects as follows:1.Analyzed on the current safety management system and pattern of Da Tong coal mine group?1?By collecting,arranging and analyzing the related data of Da Tong coal mine group,briefly introduced the general situation of Da Tong coal mine group,included mining area construction,the situation of mine gas and hydrogeology,the situation of the yield in recent five years and the death rate of million-ton,and the used safety management pattern at present,namely cleared the responsibility and obligation layer by layer according to the coal mine production enterprises took the three-level management system of group,branch or subsidiary and mine,clearly gave testing contents and safeguard measures to convenient for safety management,and established safety management leadership organization.?2?Arrangement collected the keep situation of emergency rescue material reserve and large rescue mechanical equipment of Da Tong coal mine group.At the same time,by consulting data and investigation and analysis also showed that Da Tong coal mine group made a complete emergency plan to prevention and decrease the damage of emergent events to group company,improve prevention and control capability of pre-accident and afterwards emergency treatment capability.2.Expansion researched on the construction method of uncertain type elementary dependent function in two nested regions and three nested intervals?1?Introduced the distance between the middle point in extension theory and interval,the distance between interval and interval,place value,certain type elementary dependent function in two nested intervals and three nested intervals and other conceptions and properties,and pointed out that the certain type elementary dependent function have limitation on application aspects.?2?Expansion researched on the elementary dependent function to improve the reliability of safety early warning model of coal mine,considered generalizing the index measured value from point value to interval value or region value would be more accord with engineering need.Gave the distance among the regions in two nested regions,side-distance,place value and other conceptions in succession,and discussed their properties,constructed uncertain type elementary dependent function in two nested regions.?3?Based on systematic introduction to the construction method of certain type elementary dependent function in three nested intervals,gave extension distance,side-distance,place value and other conceptions in three nested intervals,and discussed the related properties.Proposed the construction method of uncertain type elementary dependent function in three nested intervals of which the optimal point on the center and any point,discussed the properties of dependent function in the external,internal and boundary point of different intervals,and gave the proof,these theoretical results would have important promotion to perfect extension evaluation and prediction model,especially would be more widely in the aspect of model applicability.3.Established extension safety early warning model based on the uncertain type elementary dependent function in three nested intervals and applied in Xin Zhouyao coal in Da Tong coal mine group?1?Obtained the situation of the coal yield in recent five years,the death rate of million-ton and the used safety management pattern at present by many investigations to Da Tong coal mine group and consulting related data,namely according to the coal mine production enterprises took the three-level management system of group,branch or subsidiary and mine,the whole belonged to post responsibility management pattern.?2?Constructed the safety early warning index system according to the actual situation of Da Tong coal mine group.Obtained primary early warning index system according to index construction principle,then screened according to the actual situation of Da Tong coal mine group which only existed high gas coal mine,not existed coal and gas outburst coal mine,and obtained the final safety early warning index system,namely composed of six first level indexes which contained human factor,equipment factor,workplace environment factor,geological environment factor,management factor,information factor and forty-five second level indexes which contained manager comprehensive level,technician comprehensive level,technician occupancy,personnel violation of regulations working rate,personnel violate commanding rate,personnel violation labor discipline rate,employee monthly mean training time,employee average educational level,average working age of employee,wage level of employee,safety examiner rate,support equipment attrition rate,ventilation equipment attrition rate,dustproof equipment attrition rate,fire fighting equipment attrition rate,power supply equipment attrition rate,electromechanical equipment attrition rate,drain equipment attrition rate,communication equipment attrition rate,transport equipment attrition rate,gas drainage equipment attrition rate,the size of average wind speed,minimum pedestrian level of roadway,minimum pedestrian width of roadway,temperature in coal mine,dust concentration in coal mine,roadway qualified rate,average fault throw,coal seam spontaneous combustion self-ignition duration,change of coal seam thickness,relative gas emission,gas explosion index,water content of working face,reliability degree of roof and floor,complete extent of safety management system,organization and coordination capability,effectiveness of management,timeliness of management,emergency system perfect rate,safety inspection implementation rate,hidden danger rectification qualified rate,informatization degree of equipment,identification degree of information,information processing capability,safety information communication effectiveness.?3?Established extension safety early warning model by uncertain type elementary dependent function in three nested intervals.Took two intervals generalize to three intervals could make the problem describe more exquisite,generalized the index value from point value to interval value could make the model more accord with engineering need,the weights of index at all levels in the model were determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,this would effective decrease the influence of human factors.Finally,used extension integration method to comprehensive evaluation.?4?Example analyzed on Xin Zhouyao coal by extension safety early warning model.According to the actual situation of Xin Zhouyao coal,obtained the corresponding classical field and controlled field to the first interval and the second interval of the corresponding early warning level to forty-five second level indexes by consulting related data and consulting experts.At the same time,determined the index interval value of evaluating matter element,then obtained extension dependent degree with each early warning level according to uncertain type elementary dependent function in three nested intervals.Determined the index weights of six first level indexes and forty-five second level indexes by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,obtained extension dependent degree of human factor?X1?,equipment factor?X2?,workplace environment factor?X3?,geological environment factor?X4?,management factor?X5?and information factor?X6?on no warning,light warning,middle warning and moderate warning were in sequence of K?X1?=?0.165,0.067,-0.384,-0.559?,K?X2?=?0.081,0.085,-0.377,-0.598?,K?X3?=?0.069,-0.032,-0.54,-0.505?,K?X4?=?0.076,-0.146,-0.293,-0.360?,K?X5?=?0.179,0.182,-0.508,-0.714?,and K?X6?=?0.177,0.194,-0.476,-0.620?according to the extension early warning model method.Finally,obtained dependent degree of Xin Zhouyao coal in Da Tong coal mine group belonging to each early warning level calculated by comprehensive extension weighted evaluation method was K?X?=?0.073,0.081,-0.042,-0.581?.According to the principle of maximum dependent degree could judge safety early warning level of Xin Zhouyao coal was light warning.?5?Extension safety early warning model could dynamic monitoring on the safety production of Da Tong coal mine group,and provided scientific basis to safety decision making.4.Improvement researched on Vague entropy and trapezoidal Vague value set integrated operational?1?Considered the effect of fuzziness and intuitiveness could complementary in entropy measure,proposed the axiomatic definition of Vague entropy,and gave a concrete entropy formula,also pointed out the formula meet all the conditions of axiomatic definition at the same time.This research laid a theoretical basis to the determine method of the weights of expert and index in subsequent decision making model,namely entropy method.?2?Based on the definition of the existed trapezoidal Vague value,gave the score value,exact value,distance,uncertainty,actual utility function,opportunity utility function and other conceptions.Defined the utility function of trapezoidal Vague value by actual utility function and opportunity utility function,and used this to measure the size of the value of different schemes had.?3?Used the existed two different trapezoidal Vague values operational rule,proposed trapezoidal Vague value BM operator and weighted count average operator,respectively,made the result of integrated operational was still trapezoidal Vague value,obtained some conclusions and proved them by mathematical induction at the same time.The research showed that trapezoidal Vague value BM operator had idempotence,permutation invariability,monotonicity,boundedness and other good operation properties,and as weighted count average operator involved index weight and was easy to programming,it would have much wider application.5.Established emergency rescue capability evaluation model of coal mine based on trapezoidal Vague set theory and applied in the related coal mines in Da Tong coal mine group?1?Treated Da Tong coal mine group as research object,discussed the principle of construct emergency rescue capability evaluation index system of coal mine.And according to the above principle constructed the emergency rescue capability evaluation index system of coal mine which was suitable for Da Tong coal mine group,namely composed of five first level indexes which contained safety production system of coal mine,danger detection capability,emergency preparedness capability,emergency disposal and lose control capability,afterwards recovery capability and thirty-three second level indexes which contained meteorological and geographical position,capability of prevent disaster,ventilation capability,involved dangerous substance and production nature,roadway system,monitoring equipment,safety inspection,identify and control dangerous source,monitor great dangerous source of coal mine,hidden accident and early warning capability,information report and disposal,related rules and regulations,establishment of emergency plan,contingency training and rehearsing,emergency place and facility,rescue team,emergency command,emergency rescue materials,related propaganda and education,emergency evacuee shelter,identify and analysis disaster situation,implementation of emergency plan,response of rescue personnel,emergency response capability,medical rescue capability,expert technical support,accident control capability,practical disaster reduction capability,afterward disposal,resumption of production,accident investigation and summary,emergency plan revision,influence control of disaster accident.?2?Discussed emergency rescue capability evaluation method of coal mine,established three group decision making models based on the score value,utility value and VIKOR method of trapezoidal Vague set theory.Where the weights of experts and all levels indexes all calculated by the improved Vague entropy which was proposed in this paper.On the basis of this,used trapezoidal Vague value weighted count average operator to integrate the second level index Vague value evaluation matrix which was given by all the experts,and made evaluation decision making by calculating the score value,utility value and benefit ratio value of different schemes,respectively.?3?Successively applied the above three models in four related coal mines {Y1,Y2,Y3,Y4} in Da Tong coal mine group.The decision making results as the following:?Calculated by model one,trapezoidal Vague value score function value of emergency rescue capability of each coal mine was s?Y1?=-0.664,s?Y2?=0.578,s?Y3?=2.129,s?Y4?=0.529.According to the principle of the score value was more optimal as it was larger,the ranking was Y3>Y2>Y4>Y1,so the emergency rescue capability of coal mine Y3 was the strongest.?Calculated by model two,trapezoidal Vague value utility value of emergency rescue capability of each coal mine was m?Y1?=0.342,m?Y2?=0.394,m?Y3?=0.514,m?Y4?=0.415.According to the principle of the utility value was more optimal as it was larger,the ranking was Y3>Y4>Y2>Y1,so the emergency rescue capability of coal mine3 Y was the strongest.?Calculated by model three,trapezoidal Vague value benefit ratio of emergency rescue capability of each coal mine was Q1=0.342,Q2=0.137,Q3=0,Q4=0.765.According to the principle of the benefit ratio was more optimal as it was smaller,the ranking was Y3>Y2>Y4>Y1,so the emergency rescue capability of coal mine Y3 was the strongest.?4?The strongest and the worst coal mine of emergency rescue capability were obtained by three decision making models was in full agreement,based on trapezoidal Vague value score value and VIKOR method,the obtained ranking of emergency rescue capability of coal mine was the same.?5?The research showed that involved emergency rescue capability group decision making model of coal mine based on trapezoidal Vague set was more accord with actual engineering background,increased the reliability of decision making result by taking the improved Vague entropy and integrated operational.The above research result provided the reference basis for government departments and Da Tong coal mine group understood the emergency rescue capability of related coal mines. |
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