Research On Comprehensive Ecological Vulnerability Assessment And Development Countermeasures

Favorable eco-environment is significant basis for long-term mankind survival and development.However,the ecological environment deterioration has become a top issure in current crises that engenders sustainable development restriction under the pressure of economic development,acceleration of urbanization process,large-scale construction of industrialization and population pressure.It's extremely important to coordinate rapid economic development and favorable eco-environment quality.As a key measure in the coordination process,ecological vulnerability quantification is an imperative task to provide sientific guidance and decision basis for efficient eco-environment mangement.In terms of the comprehensive evaluation of the complicacy and uncertainty in the ecological vulnerability assessment,this thesis aims to construct a framework for ecological vulnerability assessment regarding multi uncertainty analysis methods which can quantify and reduce the fuzzy uncertainty,stochastical uncertainty,and interval uncertainty in the ecological vulnerability assessment results.The elaboration of dynamic change regularity for social-ecological coupled system from macro,meso and micro perspective addresses the relation between ecological vulnerability and sustainable development.The main research contents are summarized as follows:(1)Taking the risk preference of decision makers into account,an Ordered Weighted Averaging(OWA)-based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis is developed to assess the urbanization impact on ecological vulnerability of specific patches(human health,groundwater,surface water,and atmospheric environment).(2)The description of ecological vulnerability degree is a fuzzy process.A fuzzy-method-based multi criteria decision analysis is applied to assess spatial and temporal status and genetic mechanism of the ecological vulnerability in China from macro perspective.(3)Considering the fuzzy and stochastic uncertainty in vulnerability assessment process,a cloud-model-based multi criteria decision analysis method is built to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of four independent municipalities in China.The method also supports principal contradiction recognition.(4)In order to retain more decision information in the data collection process,an interval-method-based multi criteria decision analysis method integrated Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model and Monte Carlo is developed to quantify and predict the improvement or deterioration degree of ecological vulnerability after different policy implementation.In this thesis,an ecological vulnerability quantification assessment model combining a series method for uncertainty is constructed to 1)analyze the spatial and temporal change regularity,2)illustrate genetic mechanism of the ecological vulnerability status,3)recognise principal contradictory indicators for ecological vulnerability,4)predict policy implementation impact on future ecologcial vulnerability,and 5)quantify multi uncertainty in the ecological vulnerability assessment process.The research findings support decision basis for regional eco-environment protection and pollution control and provide scientific strategies for future urban and eco-environmental plannings.It is a meaningful and significant research for sustainable and equilibrium development.