Research On The Operation Mechanism Of Electricity Coal Supply

Because of the special historical and economic system in China,the inconsistency of the reform process between the power industry and coal market affects the stable and efficient operation of China's electric coal supply chain.At present,the thermal power of our country is basically composed of coal-fired power.And thermal power generation accounts for more than 70%of the total power generation.As a result,coal resources have become an important guarantee for the development of power in China,and also become a bottleneck restricting the development of electricity.Since the dual price system was introduced in the coal market in 1992,the contradiction between coal and electricity has been intensifying,especially in the dispute over the price of coal and electricity.There are many reasons for the contradiction between the price of coal and electricity,such as the historical economic system,the state policy,the international and domestic economic situation,the social demand and so on.However,the uncoordinated operation of the main parts of the coal supply chain is the fundamental factor leading to this phenomenon,especially in the two markets of coal and electricity.Therefore,it is necessary to study the main contradictions in the operation of the electric coal supply chain,to straighten out the relationship between the main bodies of the electric coal supply chain,to put forward the operation mode of solving the operation mechanism of the electric coal supply chain according to the research of the cooperative theory,and to do a good job of running risk management and performance evaluation in time so as to realize the synergy and efficient operation of the main bodies.Aiming at the main problems existing in the operation mechanism of the electric coal supply chain,this research starts with the study of the main operating contradiction of the coal supply chain,namely the electricity coal price.The influencing factors of the market price of electric coal in China are identified and analyzed,and the prediction model of electricity market price is set up based on intelligent algorithm.On the basis of the accurate prediction of the electricity coal price,the competition game model of the main body of the electric coal supply chain is constructed.The operation state of the electric coal supply chain under the non cooperative game competition environment is analyzed,and the cooperative integrated operation mode is proposed to improve the efficiency of the electric coal supply chain in the non cooperative game competition.Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the integrated operation of the electric coal supply chain,the research on the cooperative integrated operation risk of the coalsupply chain is carried out,and the concept of harmony degree is proposed to evaluate the operation performance of the coal supply chain.In addition,a number of empical studies have ben carried out.The main research results and inovations in this research are as follows:Firstly,the model of coal market price prediction is studied.Through the identification and analysis of the factors affecting the price of electric coal market,the KPCA-MCS-LSSVM model for predicting the price of electricity coal is established.KPCA maps the initial input variables to high dimensional feature space by nonlinear transformation,and reduces the dimension of input variables on the premise of retaining the nonlinear information among the input variables,so as to accurately extract important information features between variables.MCS can improve the convergence speed of the algorithm by using the weight of random weight to improve the algorithm's convergence speed,and improve the algorithm in the later period of slow convergence and low precision,so as to achieve the global optimal search.LSSVM uses equality constraints to replace the inequality constraints of the SVM model,and uses the kernel function to transform the prediction problem into the solution of the equation group,which strengthens the learning and training ability of the algorithm.The KPCA-MCS-LSSVM model is put on the Matlab modeling platform to run.The calculation results show that the forecast model of the coal market price proposed in this research has effectively improved the prediction accuracy and effect of the electricity coal market price,which is feasible and effective.Secondly,the competition game relationship between the main parties of the electric coal supply chain operation is studied,and the competition game model of the main body of the electric coal supply chain based on NSGA-II is established.On the basis of the accurate prediction of the electricity coal price,this research analyzes the non cooperative competition game relationship between the main bodies of the electric coal supply chain,and constructs the demand function of the electric coal production enterprises,the third party logistics enterprises and the three parties of the electric power enterprises.On this basis,the supply chain transportation of the electric coal is constructed.In the non cooperative competition game model of the three party subject,the NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the game model,and the competition game process of the main body of the electric coal supply chain is designed based on the NSGA-II algorithm.The superiority of the NSGA-II algorithm is verified by the empirical analysis.At the same time,the conflict between the targets of the three main bodies is found to be conflicting and non compatible.In order to effectively improve the efficiency of the coal supply chain,the cooperative optimization strategy of the coal supply chain is proposed,which includes the construction strategy,the coordination strategy and the optimization strategy of the electricity coal circulation supply network.This laid the foundation for the coordinated operation mode of the coal supply and cooperative network model of electric coal circulation and supply.Thirdly,the cooperative integrated network operation mode of the electric coal circulation and supply is studied,and the cooperative integrated network operation mode of the electric coal circulation supply is constructed.The operation line of each subject under the market environment and coordination integration target is clarified in the cooperative integrated purchasing of the electric coal supply chain,the cooperative integrated warehousing and the cooperative integrated transportation mode.In the integrated procurement model of electric coal circulation and supply,it is mainly to create a cooperative and integrated purchasing alliance layer between electric power enterprises and electric coal suppliers.And this research puts forward the construction and selection of four purchasing modes,such as strategic partner model,important partner model,common partner model and optimal price model,and constructs a coal purchasing plan.The model is optimized to improve the operation efficiency of electric coal procurement.In the cooperative integrated storage mode of electric coal supply,the information of coal production and demand can be obtained from the electric coal suppliers and various coal transportation points from the electric power enterprises,and the coordination work of the storage points of each electric coal storage can be done with the data.The order quantity of electricity coal is ordered to reduce the uncertainty of the forecast,thus reducing the safety stock and achieving the effect of the economization of the electric coal stock.The multi echelon inventory control model of the electric coal circulation supply and the system dynamics model of the co integrated storage of electric coal are set up to reduce the inventory cost of the electric coal circulation supply.In the co integrated transportation mode of electric coal,the logistics service provider and the electric coal supplier establish the strategic cooperation relationship.They are driven by a stable customer.Through the cooperative and integrated transportation management agreement or contract signed by all parties,the parties' rights and obligations are reflected,the behavior of the parties is restrained,and the methods of punishing the enterprises that violate the agreed enterprises will be punished to ensure the effective operation of the model.The coordinated integrated transportation model of the electric coal circulation and supply,the closed vehicle route optimization model of the electric coal distribution and the open vehicle routing optimization model of the electric coal distribution are constructed.This can improve the efficiency of electric coal transportation and the operation efficiency of the whole coal supply and distribution network.Then,the cooperative integrated operation risk management of the electric coal supply chain is studied.The risk factors of the integrated operation of the electric coal supply chain are identified.The risk assessment index system of the co integrated operation of the electric coal supply chain and the risk assessment model of the integrated operation of the coal supply chain are designed.The risk management and control strategy of the coordinated operation of the coal supply chain is put forward.This research identifies and analyzes the risk of integrated operation of coal supply chain from three aspects of internal operation risk,external environment risk and overall operation risk.In the design of risk evaluation index system,the risk evaluation index is selected mainly from three aspects of internal operation risk,external environment risk and overall operation risk.In the construction of the integrated operation risk assessment model of coal supply chain,the TOPSIS evaluation method is optimized by the idea of matter-element extension,and the-TOPSIS risk assessment model of matter element extension based on entropy weight method is constructed.From three aspects of internal operation risk,external environment risk and overall operation risk,the strategy,measures and suggestions of operation risk control are formulated.Finally,based on the cooperative optimization strategy of the electric coal supply chain,the cooperative integration network operation mode of the electric coal circulation supply and the research on the risk management strategy of the co integrated operation of the electric coal supply chain,a complete cooperative network model of the electric coal circulation and supply is constructed.This research also evaluates the performance of supply network through the concept of harmony.The cooperative network model of electric coal circulation and supply construction in this research mainly includes third party logistics,coal turnover center distribution,coal enterprise distribution and coal demand customers four levels.Through the full information sharing and reasonable collaborative planning,the whole network will run through.The cooperation of the supply network support layer,the information collaboration of the supply network economic geography layer and the supply network information technology layer,the trust guarantee coordination of the supply network operation layer,the business collaboration of the supply network business process layer,the benefit distribution coordination and the cultural synergy are proposed to realize the coordination management of the electricity coal circulation and supply network.Finally,from six dimensions,such as supply network support layer,supply network economic geography layer,supply network information technology layer,supply network operation layer,business process layer and social benefit layer,the overall performance evaluation index system of electric coal supply network is designed,and a three-dimensional model of the harmony degree of the supply network is constructed.The fuzzy hierarchy method is used to evaluate the harmony degree of the coal supply network.The results show that the cooperative network model proposed in this research can effectively improve the operating efficiency of the main body of the electric coal supply chain and ensure the stable operation of the electric coal supply chain.It can provide reference and reference for the design of the operation mechanism of the electric coal supply chain,and it has extensive applicability.