Study On Health Risk Assessment And Compensation Mechanism Of PM_2.5 Pollution Under Different Level Of Urbanization

At present,the rapid gathering of population and industry in cities in China and the increasing degree of urbanization have brought about serious resource and environmental problems,especially air pollution.The impact of urbanization on air quality has been significantly reflected in human health problems,especially in the initial stage of urbanization.The city's industrial development,dense population living,traffic congestion and other reasons cause the aggravation of air pollution.At the same time,the high population density and population flow in many cities lead to an increase in the number of people exposed to pollution.High pollution and high exposure lead to prominent urban health problems,which will inevitably bring certain economic losses.According to the requirements of healthy China construction,it is of great significance to make a reasonable assessment of the health risks and economic losses of residents caused by urban air pollution.Based on the PM_2.5 data and socio-economic data of 338 cities in 31 provinces of China from 2006 to 2016,the spatial panel model?SDM?was used to analyze the relationship between air pollution and population urbanization rate as well as the urbanization development level represented by nighttime light data.On this basis,combined with population density data,exposure response functions are used to provide a comprehensive health risk assessment of 338 cities,and then combined with data on early death and related medical consumption data?China Health and Family Planning Statistics Yearbook?,the Value of Statistics Life?VSL?and the Cost of Illness?COI?are used to calculate economic losses.A panel model with the level of urbanization level as the main factor was established to analyze and examine health risks and economic losses at different levels of urbanization,and to explore the intrinsic relationship between urbanization and economic losses.The aim is to make city and national policy makers aware of the huge threat posed by air pollution and to strengthen their efforts to improve air quality.Finally,based on the emission grid data provided by the MEIC team and the In MAP model of the In MAP research team at the university of Washington,the spatial overflow amount of atmospheric pollutants was quantitatively calculated,and the amount of atmospheric ecological compensation is quantified basedon this,so as to establish a national ecological compensation mechanism.The following conclusions are as follows:?1?Research about the correlation between urbanization and atmospheric environment on city level.The results show that the PM_2.5 pollution in the whole country has not been basically improved,by 2016,more than 65% of cities and 75% of the population were exposed to the polluted environment with PM_2.5 concentration of more than 35?g /m3.In order to explore the impact of urbanization level changes on pollution,we chose to construct a model with urbanization rate as the main explanatory variable,including one term model,quadratic term model and cubic term model:?1?PU2 model and PU3 model show differences when the population urbanization rate is less than 10%,however,except this,PM_2.5 concentration decreases with the increase of urbanization rate.In PD2 and PD3 models,before the urbanization level?DN value?is lower than 15,PM_2.5 concentration increases with the increase of urbanization level.?2?The fitted results of the PU3 model and PD2 model show some similarity,presenting the classic inverted u-shaped curve law.The air pollution of both models first increases with the increase of urbanization,and then decreases with the increase of urbanization after an inflection point.?3?Compared with the ordinary panel inspection,the spatial panel takes the interaction factors between cities into account,and the improvement inflection point from bad to good lags behind,indicating that the spread of atmospheric pollutants between cities accelerated the deterioration of air quality,correspondingly,delayed the improvement of air quality.It is also further explained that air quality improvement in a single city is extremely difficult and may be affected by external urban interference.The improvement of air environment quality in the future will be the result of a regional joint effort.?2?Based on the research on pollution and urbanization,the differences in health risks and economic losses under different urbanization levels have been deeply explored.The estimated results of exposure risk showed that the number of premature deaths,respiratory diseases and cardiovascular disease due to PM_2.5 pollution is 0.901 million,0.806 million and 0.476 million respectively.The number of chronic bronchitis,acute bronchitis and asthma is 1.330 million,0.138 million and 1.315 million.Economic losses due to PM_2.5 pollution amounted to 1.846 trillion yuan in 2016,or 2.73% of the annual GDP.The total direct economic loss related to PM_2.5 pollution in 2016 is 1.846trillion-yuan,accounting for 2.73% of total annual GDP.In addition,with the increaseof urbanization level in different cities,the health and economic losses caused by PM_2.5pollution rise drastically.In order to explore the relationship between health risk,economic loss and urbanization,models with urbanization rate as the main explanatory variable were constructed,including primary term,quadratic term and cubic term.?1?The fitting results of HD models and ED models are similar,such as there are inflection points in the ordinary panel fitting of HD2 and ED2 models with only quadratic terms,and only when the urbanization level is high does the optimal inflection point occur.?2?The cubic term model,including HD3 and ED3,shows that there is no inflection point during the study period,and with the continuous improvement of urbanization level,the health risk of urban residents is increasing,and the related economic loss are also increasing.?3?Compared with the ordinary panel test,the spatial panel fitting results from bad to good improvement inflection point lag,showing that there is no inflection point into a meaningful value range.Finally,338 cities are divided into Category A?non-priority areas?,Category B?successful regions?,C Class?potential region?,Class D?focus area?.?3?Based on the space spillover effect,The INMAP model is used to calculate the spatial overflow situation and estimate the related health risks and economic losses caused by pollution overflow.First the SMI value of PM_2.5 emission and pollution is98.698,indicating that the spatial mismatch between PM_2.5 emission and concentration is significant.In terms of the impact of pollution spillovers from each province,emissions from each province had the greatest impact on the local PM_2.5 concentration,followed by the adjacent areas.Henan,Sichuan,Shandong and Jiangsu provinces caused the most changes in health terminals,while Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces had the most changes in health terminals.Relatively speaking,Shandong Province,Henan Province and Jiangsu Province are not only the regions causing the greatest health risks as well as the regions have the greatest local health risks,due to the high population density,large pollutant emissions and relatively poor air quality.The highest amount of compensation is paid from Shandong Province,which requires more than 3.5 billion yuan in compensation to Jiangsu and more than 2 billion yuan to Henan,followed by Jiangsu Province,which pays nearly 2 billion yuan to Anhui Province.The highest province to be compensated is Henan Province,followedby Jiangsu Province.The fitting effect of the total economic compensation with urbanization rate is not good,either the amount of compensation payable or the amount of compensation paid,but the fitting effect with urbanization rate is excellent once it is converted into the amount of compensation per capita and the amount of compensation paid per capita.?4?From the perspective of ecological compensation,a national ecological compensation mechanism should be established.This paper introduces only two kinds of compensation models,one is from the source,from the perspective of emission right equity,a certain amount of money must be paid to purchase the emission right of other regions after the emission exceeds the setting value,that is,the ecological compensation model based on the equity of pollution right is built.The second is from the results,accounting for the economic losses caused by pollution emissions,the economic losses that have been caused must be compensated,that is,ecological compensation model based on the right to health fair is built.Finally,the source of compensation amount is analyzed from the following aspects: trading amount of emission rights,inter-governmental joint investment,inter-governmental financial transfer payment,inter-governmental mandatory withholding,and absorption of social capital.The use of compensation funds mainly includes: special funds to implement the application system and the common compensation coexistence system.The establishment of a unified regional atmospheric environmental quality management agency to manage all matters of atmospheric ecological compensation.