Research On Long-term Dynamic Equilibrium Decision Model Of Electricity Market Based On System Dynamics

Past decades,countries around the world have actively carried out the reform of promoting energy markets liberalization in succession.And aiming to through establishing the competitive electricity market mode,which is economical,efficiency and of appropriate scale to ensure the safe and stable operation of power system.At the end of the 20th century,our country also began to explore the electric power market system,which is suitable for the national conditions.At present,our country has carried out a new round of electric power system reform,which aims to introduce competition to both generation side and power sale side and then promote the effective allocation of power resources.Conprehensively considered,on the one hand,the current international power market liberalization reforms have some successful practice,but it is limited and is not enough to effectively guide the long-term power market behavior in our country.On the other hand,the new situation of power industry's development makes the environment of powermarket's construction in China be more complex,existingboth opportunities and challenges.Therefore,our country must according to its own actual situationput forward a new model for the power market reform in china.Fundamentally speaking,that is to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of powermarket,including power generation,transmission,distribution and other aspects,and then makes the power market be equilibrium,orderly anddevelop rationally.In view of this,system dynamics is used in this paper to research on the long-term powermarket dynamic equilibrium.First,the investment decision making and market compensation mechanism of generation capacity areresearched on.First of all,in this paper,we overview the characteristics of power market,including the trading patterns and market structure.Secondly,the characteristics of power generation capacity investment havebeen deeply analyzed,and based on the micro economics perspective,power generation capacity investment has been analyzed,and the different of generation capacity investment decision-making process in development stages has been compared in the free powermarket under the condition of uncertainty.Finally,the international experience of free powermarket is analyzed and summaried.Second,system dynamics theory of the long-term dynamic equilibrium model of electricity market is studied.First of all,clarify the meaning of power market stability and necessity.Secondly,summarize traditional and microcosmic economics equilibrium theory,including Nash equilibrium and competitive equilibrium and explore the unsuitability of traditional equilibrium model applying tothe field of power market equilibrium.On this basis,combined with the power market long-term equilibrium,clear the basic principles of system dynamics,the mathematical framework,general assumptions and modeling stepsofrelated variables,giving the theoretical foundation for the following research.Third,a long-term dynamic equilibrium decision model of power market based on system dynamics has been built.First of all,considering the anthracite(HC),combined with cycle gas turbine(CCGT)and gas turbine(GT)three power generation technology,generation capacity investment decision-making model has been studied;Secondly,it has respectively from the powermarket supply side and demand side constructedcorresponding power supply and demand model.Furthermore,based on the power generation side market price and power transmission service price it has constructed price spike model.Finally,it has analyzed the rational expectation hypothesis and limited rationality hypothesisand established the expectation formation model under the assumption of limited rational andanalyzed power plant investment income.Fourth,the simulation results of long-term dynamic equilibrium decision model of power market are analyzed.First of all,determine the basic conditions of the model simulation,such as fuel prices,the cost of investment and other variables;secondly,combined with the simulation results it analyzed power demand and power installation capacity long-term changes and long-term changes in the average price and the cost of power generation,the effect of different power generation technology investment rate on capacity investmentand the effect of capacity investment completion rate on maintaining capacity long-term equilibrium.Fifth,it has done sensitivity analysis of the long-term dynamic behavior of power market.First of all,it has finished simulation calculation and contrast analysis for the different needs of expected growth rate,the ceiling price and power generation capacity investment decision and market equilibrium effects under the condition of capacity price;secondly,it has studied the effects of different load loss values,and the highest price policy setting,cost of capital rate and the other factors on power market's long-term development.Research results has provided the basis for power generation capacity investment decision-making.By determining the key factors which have the effects on power market long-term dynamic equilibrium,analyzingpower market long-term dynamic behavior mechanism,it has provided theoretical support to promote the long-term healthy development of the power market in China.