Research On Regional Water Resources Optimal Allocation And Industrial Structure Adjustment Based On Supply And Demand Prediction

With the accelerated urbanization process and the rapidly growth in population and economy,the contradictions between water supply and demand are becoming increasingly prominent,and many areas in China are facing the serious water pollution.These two problems have been one of the bottlenecks to the economic and social development.Meanwhile,the indsutrial structure development has been affected by the arrival of water shoratge and water environment problems.With the emergence of the new normal economy,limited water resources should be allocated more scientifically and reasonably and the indstrial stuucture should be adjusted in the direction of lower resources consumption,pollutants emission,and higher benefits under the dual contraints of water shoratge and water pollution.In the face of the projects for leapfrog development in Xinjiang and the silk road economic belt,Urumqi,as one of the water-saving cities,should coordinate the realationships among water utilization,water environment and the regional indutrial growth.Therefore,how to maintain the sound economic growth when trying to alleviate the water scarity and improve the water environmental quality is a great challenge that confronted the decision-makers.Based on the systematically summarized the researches related to water demand prediction,water optimal allocation and industrial structure adjustment under the dual constraints of water resources and environment,this paper foucus on discussing the changing situration of water utilization and water environment.Meanwhile,water supply and demand predication models as well as the urban water resources allocation model under uncertainty were developed through coupling the existing models.Considering the complex interactions among the industrial structure,water resources and environment,the industrial structure optimization model was proposed to provide the theoretical reference and technical support for intergrated water resources planning and management.In detail,the main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the Environmental Kuznets curve,the dynamic equation among economic growth and water utilization and water environment were established in order to explore the relationship and developing trends between economic development and these two factors.Results showed that water demand in Urumqi,especially for the industrial and domestic water demand would keep increasing with the growth of economy.However,COD and NH3-N emissions would alieviate with any further economic development in future.(2)In order to handle the various uncertainties on water supply and demand sides,Markov Chain model,Unbiased Grey-markov model and Markov model based on quadratic programming were used to forecast the streamflow,water demand and water utilization structure,and to clarify the water supply and demand situations in the following planning years.Results showed that 2017-2022 would correspond to the normal flow year and the associated available water resources were[5.54,7.58]×108m3 with maximized probability.The water demand of Urumqi would grow at an annual rate of nearly 4.20%during 13th Five-Year period.For the water utilization structure,the proportions of agriculture would continue to decrease while the proportions of industry,municipality,and eco-environment would increase.(3)Considering the uncertain forecasting results and the multiple processes of water intaking,water distributing,water using and water-draining,the interval multi-stage dual-stochastic programming method was applied for water resources allocation in order to provide scientific water allocation schemes and realizae the reasonable water resources planning.Results showed that the satisfaction degree of water demand varies in differsnt users.The priority of domestic water demand is not conducive to the equitable and reasonable allocation of limited water resources.(4)The industrial structure optimization model under the dual constraints of water resources and water environment were proposed.The developing scale,pollutants discharge and economic benefits of specific sector were analyzed and the preferential developing derection were defined aiming to provide decision support for future's industrial adjustment.Results showed the industry should foucus on the development of food processing,metal-processing and petrochemical industry.Plantation and livestock should give priority to develop vegetables,oil crops,cotton,sheep and pig.In general,the obtained results could help the decision-makers to correctly weigh and grasp the status of water resources utilization and water environment,seek scientific and reasonable water allocation and industrial restructuring schemes and therefore provide guidance for coordinating the sustainable development of water resources and environment as well as economic growth.