Research On Mechanism Of Residents’ Rail Transit Trip Generation Under Rainy Or Snowy Weather Conditions

Urban rail transit,with high speed,comfortable environment and punctual arrival,has been developed rapidly in China.Ridership is commonly considered as a key element in decision-making of planning,construction,operation and management of rail transit line and network.In recent years,the rainy or snowy weather conditions have caused big ridership fluctuation when compared to daily ridership under fine weather condition,which brings enormous challenges to daily operation,organization and management.Studying the mechanism of residents’rail transit travel behavior in rainy or snowy conditions,and constructing a methodology can facilitate the integration of rainy or snowy weather conditions into existing rail transit-related theories and engineering practices.It will help relevant agencies to understand the law of residents’trip generation under rainy or snowy weather conditions,to predict the fluctuation of passenger flow in rail transit when different types of rainy or snowy weather occur,and to improve their performance of planning and operation management.Based on residents’individual behavior,this research aims to explore the methodology for urban residents’rail transit trip generation mechanism under different rainy or snowy weather conditions.The main contents include:(1)According to the analysis of necessity,a method for defining the classification of rainy or snowy weather conditions based on urban transit ridership fluctuations was constructed.And the calculation of public transit ridership fluctuations and K-Means cluster analysis methods were explored.(2)Based on the existing research on investigation of travel behavior,a SP/RP-based experimental method has been designed and a set of analysis methodology has been proposed for urban residents’rail transit trip related behavior under rainy or snowy weather conditions.Moreover,Nanjing has been taken as an example.And residents’actual travel behaviors under different weather conditions have been compared to those in fine weather.(3)Reference to the theory of planned behavior(TPB),the connotation of residents’rail transit travel in rainy or snowy weather and the related decision-making system were analyzed.Based on situation awareness(SA)theory,the relevant situation(temporal and spatial distribution)factors were analyzed,and the situation awareness system of residents’rail transit trip generation under different weather conditions was constructed.(4)Based on the theory of behavior,this research analyzed the conceptual model and constraints of residents’rail transit travel-related demand under different weather conditions.Furthermore,a binary logistic model was established to analyze the decision of residents’trip-or-not under rainy or snowy weather conditions.Nanjing has been taken as an example to apply the methodology proposed above.(5)A stated adaptation experiment was designed,and an analysis method based onPearson_?~2test for residents’attitude toward weather information was proposed.In addition,the Cox proportional hazards function(Cox)which can simultaneously manager the"survival"time and state,was employed and modified to analyze the attitude of residents’home-based departure time choice under different weather conditions.Nanjing has been taken as an example to apply the methodology.(6)Changes of characteristics of trip modes caused by rainy or snowy weather conditions and perceptions of residents have been analyzed.Moreover,the influential factors of residents’rail transit-related mode choice in rainy or snowy weather were explored.Additionally a trip mode choice analysis methodology for residents’rail transit trip generation under different weather conditions has been established based on SEM-MNL framework.Nanjing also has been taken as an example to apply the methodology.