An IC-card-based Study On The Influences Of Rainy Weather On Rail Commute

In the background of rapid development of urban rail transit system,rail transit has become the first choice of many travelers,with its advantages of large volume,fast speed and high efficiency.The research shows that adverse weather will affect the passenger flow of rail transit,while the planning and construction stage is lack of relevant consideration,which leads to the unforeseeable influence of the adverse weather,especially on the commuter period,which not only reduces the service level of the operation,but also increases the operation cost.In view of this,this paper,based on the IC-card data of Nanjing,carries out the research on the impact of rainy weather on rail transit commuter travel.Firstly,based on the IC-card data of the rail transit,the discriminant basis of the rail transit commuter travel behavior is constructed,and the extraction method of the data set of the rail transit commuter travel chain is proposed.Secondly,based on the data set of the commuting travel chain,combined with the multisourced data,such as the data of rainfall weather and network in Nanjing,the multi-dimensional effects factor set of traveler travel characteristics,the service level characteristics of traffic facilities and the rainfall weather characteristics are constructed with the help of statistical analysis,data mining and data crawling.Then,the Mixed Logit model is selected to establish the selection model of rail transit mode for the departure stage and the return stage of the traveler under the rainy weather.According to the significance of the explanatory variables,the estimated parameters and the estimated results of the random utility,the influence rules of the travel choice probability of the rail transit in the rain weather are analyzed.Finally,from the planning and the operation of the rail transit system,the optimization strategies to deal with the influence of the large passenger flow in the commuter period induced by the rain weather are put forward respectively,helping put the theory into the practice of engineering.