Statistical Measurement Of Energy Rebound Effect In China

Energy is the material basis to support the progress of human civilization and is an indispensable basic condition for the development of modern society.In order to achieve economic and social sustainable development,all countries take improving energy efficiency as the primary policy choice for energy conservation and emission reduction.Because of the energy rebound effect,the practical significance of improving energy efficiency in reducing total energy consumption may be greatly reduced.The scientific measurement of China’s energy rebound effect can help clarify the direction and magnitude of the effect of energy efficiency on total energy consumption in the process of China’s economic development,test the implementation effect of current energy efficiency promotion policies,and then provide a scientific reference for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.From the point of the comprehensive connection of the whole economic and social system,this paper makes a detailed measurement of China’s energy rebound effect.Firstly,by referring to relevant literature,detailed understanding of the occurrence mechanism of energy rebound effect,try to bring structural adjustment factors into the occurrence mechanism of energy rebound effect.Secondly,the connotation of energy rebound effect is defined,and the theoretical support of the statistical measure of energy rebound effect is expounded.Then,Compilate energy input-output table to provide data for statistical measure,and construct statistical measure model by combining complete factor decomposition method and factor production function method.Finally,the energy rebound effect of various industries and the whole economy in China is statistically measured,and the statistical measurement results of energy rebound effect are analyzed from three aspects of long-term,short-term and dynamic changes.The results show that:Firstly,In the long run,the energy rebound effect of China’s overall economy from 2002 to 2017 is not high,and the improvement of energy efficiency is still of positive significance for energy conservation.The energy rebound effect of 11 industries is higher than that of the whole country,among which the water production and supply industry is the most prominent.Secondly,in the short term,the industries that need to be paid attention to in each period are as follows: from 2002 to 2007,the energy rebound effect of water production and supply industry was as high as 103.94%,and the tempering effect occurred.From 2007 to 2012,the energy rebound effect of paper making,printing,cultural,educational and sporting goods manufacturing industry,energy production and processing industry,and water production and supply industry was higher than 100%,showing a tempering effect.From 2012 to 2017,the energy rebound effect value of energy production and processing industry,metal smelting and rolling processing industry,and metal mining and processing industry was less than 0,indicating excessive savings effect.Finally,from the perspective of dynamic changes,the energy rebound effect of China’s overall economy during 2002-2007,2007-2012 and 2012-2017 showed a changing trend of increasing first and then decreasing,and the changing trends of energy rebound effect of different industries were different.According to the above research,the improvement of energy use efficiency can still be the primary policy choice of China’s energy conservation and emission reduction.We will raise the standards for access to high-energy industries,and eliminate enterprises in industries that lag behind in science and technology.We will take raising total factor productivity as the engine of economic development and reverse the situation in which rapid economic development has led to a large consumption of energy.The formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies should comprehensively consider the occurrence and difference of energy rebound effect in various industries,and adopt different energy conservation and emission reduction measures for different industries from the perspective of the overall economic structure.