Study On Port Investment And Pricing Strategies Based On Port Users' Choice Behavior Evolution

As an important logistics node,port attracts a large number of cargo,passenger,capital and information flows,which promotes a rapid economic development in port city.Influenced by this kind of economic phenomenon,port cities had come to propose that the city should be revived depending on the port,and actively engaged in constructing port infrastructures.However,first of all,port investment mainly led by city government is prone to overheated investment in the decentralized management mode,which leads to excess supply capacity of ports.Secondly,the choice habits of customers in reality are not considered when measuring the investment effect,and the choice shift is believed to happen instantaneously,leading to overestimation of investment effect.Finally,the investment cannot give full play to the desired effect,if the influence of period difference of user loyalty on port choice is not considered when formulating investment strategy.In order to improve por't input-output effect,this paper proposes an analytical method to analyze the equilibrium state of port investment,gives an analytical formula of multi-period accumulative investment in port under the equilibrium state,reveals the mechanism of port over-investment,and provides a theoretical basis for the reform of decentralized management system.The simulation method which can accurately analyze the evolution process of port choice behavior is put forward to provide accurate demand basis for the analysis of multi-stage investment effect of port.The study on the port investment-pricing strategy helps to maximize the cumulative effect of multi-stage port investment.The specific research content is as follows:The first step is to study the equilibrium state of port investment in multi-port area.The demand function reflecting the port network attributes is fitted by using the macro port market data,which,as the basis of port utility function,is used to describe the relationship between supply and demand of ports.Then,according to the behavior norm of port investment of the port city government and port enterprises,the investment behavior models of two kinds of investment bodies are established to analyze the port investment competition behavior in the multi-port region.Then,the existence of Nash equilibrium of two kinds of port investment behaviors and their analytic expressions are demonstrated respectively with analytical methods,so as to compare and analyze the internal mechanism of two kinds of port investment behaviors.Finally,taking a multi-port region as an example,numerical analysis is carried out to respectively discuss the equilibrium state of investment in the port region under the different circumstances of investment capacity,port return on investment,and port price.Secondly,this paper studies and analyzes the simulation method of the evolution progress of port choice behavior.The study related to port choice behavior is firstly discussed and then what is determined is that the decision-making body of port choice is the concept of complex composed of shipping company,port and cargo owner.After that,the feedback relationship between port investment,port choice behavior and port loyalty is analyzed and a theoretical model simulating the evolution progress of port users' port choice behavior is constructed based on the theory of consumer's behavior.The macro market share data collected and microcosmic individual behavior data are input to the theoretical model in order to judge the practicality of the model,and then a theoretical model is calibrated by using monte carlo simulation method,obtaining a practical model for analyzing the evolution progress of port choice behavior.Finally,a practical model is used to simulate the evolution process of port choice behavior in a multi-port region,analyze the influence of port choice habit on the effect of port investment,and develop a policy suggestion that port investment shall be implemented based on the loyalty of the decision-making body of port choice.Finally,the optimization method of multi-stage investment effect is studied.Dynamic optimization model of multi-stage port investment-pricing decision is firstly constructed based on the interaction between port choice behavior and port loyalty,among which,the upper model is a multi-objective optimization problem at the aim of realizing the fastest increase of port market share,the largest increase of market share and the minimum cost of port investment capital and the lower model is the simulation model of port choice behavior considering the port decision-making body.Then,the inverse method is designed according to the mathematical characteristics of the model to solve the optimal solution of the model.In order to test the practical effect of the optimization model,two port regions are taken as examples and the optimal port investment-pricing strategy is formulated according to the characteristics of port choice behavior.This paper puts forward the strategy of firstly reducing port charges and cultivating port users' choice habit before investing in port construction.