Domestic Factors In Pakistan's Foreign Policy Towards China:A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

This doctoral dissertation attempts to investigate the role and extent of the contribution of domestic factors in Pakistan's foreign policy towards China.It aims at finding answers to the puzzle of why changes in the form of government or in the ideological orientation of the ruling party have not affected Pakistan's policy towards China.The study adopts neoclassical realist lens to find the answer to the research puzzle by investigating how sub-state variables intervene between the independent and dependent variables.Using neoclassical realist theoretical models forwarded by Schweller(2004)and Taliaferro(2006),this study postulates the Indian threat as the independent variable,statist ideology,state-sponsored nationalism,and elite consensus as intervening variables and Pakistan's foreign policy behavior towards China as the dependent variable.The proposed study is novel in content and theoretical approach and will contribute to the body of knowledge on internal determinants of foreign policy with a case study of Pakistan-China ties.Theoretically,the study will add to the neoclassical realist literature by supplying a specific case insight.This study follows a qualitative methodological design to investigate the research puzzle using process-tracing methodology with case-study approach.With the help of theoretically informed sources and historical narratives,the impact of domestic determinants in Pakistan's foreign policy behavior towards China was traced from 1972 to 2017.Both primary and secondary sources of data collection were used.The primary data was collected through in-depth semi-structured self-created qualitative interviews via email with 10 individuals belonging to the cadre of academic elite:Scholars,professors,experts on Pakistan foreign policy.Data from available governmental records,official data,statistical reports,and the memoirs of the political elites were also used as sources.The secondary data was extracted extensively from research articles,books,think-tank reports,theses,political magazines,newspapers and authentic web sources.The study presents a model that postulates that the existence of external Indian threat led the Pakistani elites to the consensus that both internal and external balancing strategies needed to be employed in order to counter the Indian threat after the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971.For internal balancing,the elites introduced a two-way strategy:Infusion of statist ideology based on Islam that acts as a bonding agent to homogenize the fragmented Pakistani nation;and the induction of state-sponsored nationalism that is aimed at psychologically and emotionally engaging the nation to Pakistan's inherited enemy and archrival-India,and projects India as the biggest existential threat.The state-infused ideology and nationalism lay the grounds for internal balancing by facilitating policy elites to extract national resources and to mobilize those resources towards defense requirements through emulation.The consensus among the elites serves as a junction where they formulate,sensationalize,implement and manipulate the ideological and nationalist sentiments aimed at homogenization and integration.There has been consensus among the elites to opt China out of the possible balancing options such as USA,Saudi Arabia,or SU/Russia to play a role as a balancer against the perceived Indian threat.The choice of China is based on the perception that it can and has helped Pakistan in both balancing strategies:internal and external.Internally Beijing has assisted Islamabad to extract latter's domestic resources by the construction of Karakorum Highway(KKH),establishment of heavy industries at Taxila,setting up of nuclear power plants and the introduction of China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC).While externally the former assists the latter to emulate her technology in nuclear,missile defense system,air force capability and conventional weaponry.This combined assistance from China in terms of internal and external balancing has helped Pakistan pursue appropriate balancing.The study found that in view of the perceived Indian threat,elite consensus has been the decisive factor in the sustenance of strong Pak-China ties especially after 1971.It remains and will stay a decisive determinant in driving the future of the bilateral ties with the dominant role of military elite.There has been significant consensus on forging close ties with China between the civil and military elites despite huge differences on other policy matters.The study also discovered that the primary credit of the establishment of strong ties with China in the post-dismemberment period goes to the civil elites.Under Z.A.Bhutto's tenure,almost all the elites consented in favor of the revival of Pak-China ties in the post-dismemberment period.Under the military dictatorship of General Zia,the military wooed religious and land-owning elites and continued to forge strong ties with China.The post General Zia period under democratic rule also witnessed a consensus on Pakistan's China policy despite civil-military rifts on other domestic and foreign policy areas.The General Musharaf era witnessed similar gestures by the civil and military elites vis-a-vis China despite huge differences on Pakistan's position on War on Terror(WoT).The civilian governments under PPP in 2008 and PML-N in 2013 followed the footsteps of the same policy.However,more recently,a more concrete,long-term geo-economic endeavor has been achieved through CPEC dubbed widely as a game-changer and a win-win strategy for regional economic growth under the auspices of both military and civil elites.By the installation of CPEC,which serves as a means to internal balancing,the Chinese stakes in Pakistan have increased manifold and will automatically act in favor of Pakistan in relation to Indian threat.In the backdrop of the on-going global and regional political events,the American hard stance on Pakistan,the ever-growing Indo-American and Indo-Iranian ties,and the rising Indian influence in Afghanistan,the high Chinese stakes in the shape of CPEC,the study intends to forward four predictions:First,that there will continue to be consensus between the civil and military elites on Pakistan's ties with China despite mammoth differences on other internal and external policy matters.Second,the military will continue to occupy a pivotal place in Pakistan's foreign policy behavior towards China.Third,India shall still be looked upon as an existential threat to Pakistan and a main foreign policy challenge.Last,the statist ideology and state-infused-nationalism will continue to play their respective roles in helping the state to address the problem of lack of unity and integration and inciting nationalistic sentiments.Through the elite consensus along with the combination of state-infused ideology and nationalism with India factor dominating Pakistan's foreign policy,the Pakistani state's key objective will be to pave ground for domestic resource-extraction which can lead her to emulate available superior technologies and ultimately set the smooth ground for balancing thereby necessitating the continuity of establishing strong ties with China.The study presents a neoclassical realist socio-ideological model of foreign policy behavior that aims to present that for developing,less coherent states facing an existential threat,the elite consensus between the civil and military elites acts as a major factor in deciding about the foreign as well as domestic policy matters with military having an upper hand in policy formulation under democratic or non-democratic governments.The policy-elites in such states embark upon a balancing strategy,both internal and external,to counter the existential threat.The elite consensus leads such states to introduce state-sponsored ideology and nationalism that aim at generating homogeneity and integration among the diverse population divided on the basis of religion,ethnicity,and language affiliation and portraying the rival state(s)as an existential threat.By virtue of the introduction of state-backed ideology and nationalism,the policy-elites actually pave way for internal balancing through domestic resource-extraction leading to emulation.For internal balancing in the shape of resource-extraction and emulation,such type of states need the assistance of another state(s)which is technologically superior,willing to assist and is powerful enough to be aligned with.The establishment of strong and friendly ties with that state(s)becomes a main foreign policy objective with a central role of the consensus of the elites.