| With the continuous extension of life expectancy and the continuous decline of birth rate,the problem of population aging in China is becoming increasingly serious.The rapid development of population aging puts forward the severe challenges to the safe operation of pension insurance system.How to deal with the aging problem has become a hot issue for policy makers and academia.Developed countries in Europe and America generally adopt the policy of delaying retirement age to cope with the population aging.With the increasing pressure on China's pension fund and the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend,the delaying retirement policy will be an inevitable choice.In November 2013,the third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing,and adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform.The Decision put forward to study and formulate the policy of gradually raising the retirement age.In October 2015,it is further put forward to introduce the policy of gradually raising the retirement age,and actively carried out actions to address the population aging.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study how to formulate a reasonable and feasible plan for delaying retirement age,evaluate the effect of delaying retirement age scientifically and effectively,and provide scientific basis for relevant government departments to make policies.Based on the actuarial theory,finance,insurance,decision theory and management,the effect evaluation of the policy of delaying retirement age is studied from the micro,medium and macro levels respectively.At the micro level,it is mainly studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on employees' pension wealth.At the medium level,it is mainly studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on the balance of basic pension fund.At the macro level,it is mainly studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on labor supply.Finally,the effect evaluation model of delayed retirement age policy is established by integrating the policy effects of micro,medium and macro levels.The main research research contents and contributions of this paper are shown as follows:(1)At the micro level,it is studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on employees' pension wealth.From pension wealth with evaluation standard "actuarial neutral","middleman" in system as the research object,on the basis of basic pension insurance in our country,using actuarial present value theory,the actuarial model of the basic pension wealth of employees is established.On this basis,the contribution rate model of the delayed retirement age policy to the pension wealth of employees is further constructed,and the influence of the delayed retirement age policy on the pension wealth of employees is investigated by numerical simulation method.The results showed that the pension wealth of male employees was damaged by delaying retirement age,and with the increase of retirement age,the pension wealth of male employees decreased gradually.When the retirement age was within 65 years old,the loss rate of pension wealth of employees increased by 3.55 percentage points on average for every one year of delay in the retirement age.For female employees,if the retirement age is within 66,delaying retirement age will increase the pension wealth of female employees.When the retirement age is extended to 61 years old,the contribution rate of female employees to pension wealth will reach the maximum value of 5.86%.After retiring at the age of 67 years old,the pension wealth obtained is not as large as that obtained at the current retirement age.In order to judge the change trend of pension wealth of employees after delayed retirement age under different factors changes,this study conducted sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the model,and the results showed that there was a positive relationship between population life span or wage growth rate and the contribution rate of delayed retirement age to employees' pension wealth.Both the discount rate and the pension adjustment rate are inversely related to the contribution rate of delayed retirement to employees' basic pension wealth.(2)At the medium level,it is studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on the balance of basic pension insurance fund.According to the actuarial theory and the actual operation of the basic pension insurance system,the actuarial evaluation model of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund is established to predict and analyze the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund in China from 2018 to 2048.On this basis,the contribution rate model of delayed retirement age to the balance of income and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund is further constructed,and the contribution rate of the three different delayed retirement age plan to the balance of income and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund is calculated.The research results show that:Under the current retirement age policy,there is a gap in the basic pension insurance fund from 2033,and the gap will increase year by year.From 2029 and 2039,Female and male pension fund have gaps respectively.To be specific,the contribute of the three different delayed retirement plan to the balance of the basic pension insurance fund of that year is less than 80%in 2021-2027.In 2022,the three different delayed retirement plan have the lowest contribution rates to the balance of basic pension insurance fund,which are 13.78%,13.78%and 13.10%respectively.By 2033,the contribution rates of the three different delayed retirement plan to the fund gap will reach the maximum,which are 833.31%,888.93%and 380.31%respectively.After that,the contribution rate of delayed retirement age to the reduction of the fund gap of basic pension insurance shows a declining trend.By 2048,the contribution rate of the three different delayed retirement plan is 120.32%,114.28%and 84.55%,respectively.In terms of the effect of delayed retirement of male and female,the contribution rate of delayed retirement of male and female to the reduction of fund gap is significantly different,and the contribution rate of male than that of female.Under the three plan,the difference values of the contribution rates of male and female delayed retirement varied between 18.28%and 48.33%,6.82%and 47.42%,33.41%and 62.21%,respectively.From 2018 to 2048,the three kinds of delayed retirement plans have played a certain role in reducing the gap of the basic pension fund of government institutions and public institutions,and the contribution rate of delayed retirement to the gap of the basic pension fund of government institutions and public institutions has been increasing year by year.Under the implementation of plan 1.the annual contribution to the shortfall of basic pension funds for government institutions and public institutions increased from 9.63%in 2021 to 117.53%in 2048.Under the implementation of plan 2,the annual contribution to the shortfall of basic endowment insurance funds for government institutions and public institutions increased from 9.63%in 2021 to 153.51%in 2048.Under plan 3,the annual contribution to the shortfall of basic pension funds for government institutions and public institutions increased from 9.39 percent in 2021 to 119 percent in 2048.Relatively speaking,the delayed retirement plan 2 contributes the most to the shortfall of the basic pension fund of government institutions and public institutions.(3)At the macro level,it is studied that the impact of delayed retirement age on labor supply.The labor supply model is constructed to predict and analyze the labor supply situation in China from 2018 to 2048.On this basis,the contribution rate model of delayed retirement age to labor supply is further constructed.Six different plan of delayed retirement age are designed,the contribution rate of delayed retirement age to labor supply is calculated,and the influence of delayed retirement policy on the scale and structure of future labor supply is discussed.The research results show that from 2018 to 2048,the absolute amount of labor force in China and the proportion of labor force in the total population will decrease year by year.The labor force will gradually decrease from 767 million in 2018 to 571 million in 2048,a total decrease of 196 million people,with an average annual decrease of about 6.32 million people.Among them,the male labor force will gradually decrease from 410 million in 2018 to 330 million in 2048,the female labor force will gradually decrease from 357 million in 2018 to 241 million in 2048,and the male and female labor force will decrease by 0.8 million and 116 million respectively.Because of the difference in the retirement age between male and female,the difference between the male and female labor force is about 0.7 billion every year.The proportion of labor force in the total population dropped from 54.54 percent in 2018 to 39.1 percent in 2048,the decline was 15.37 percentage points within 31 years.After the implementation of the delayed retirement policy,different delayed retirement plans will increase the labor supply every year from 2021 to 2048.When the retirement age of male and female is gradually delayed to 65,the contribution rate of delayed retirement to labor supply will increase year by year,from 1.53%in 2021 to 28.45%in 2048.(4)Finally,it is established the effect evaluation model of delayed retirement policy by integrating the policy impacts from the micro,medium and macro levels and using the multi-attribute decision-making method.Then,three different delaying retirement age plan are designed,and the comprehensive evaluation of these three different delayed retirement plan is carried out by using the effect evaluation model of delayed retirement policy.The results show that when the three levels of policy influence are equally important,plan 2 has the best effect,followed by plan 1.When the policy impact at the medium or macro level is mainly considered or at the same time the policy impact at the medium and any other levels is considered,the conclusion is still that the best effect of plan 2 is obtained,followed by plan 1,When the policy impact at the micro level is considered,plan 3 has the best effect,followed by plan 1.When both micro and macro policy impacts are taken into account,plan 2 has the best effect,followed by plan 3. |
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