Research On Knowledge Fusion Method For Emergency Decision-making With Fuzzy Uncertainty

As the core research of emergency management,emergency decision-making is to make full use of decision-making knowledge to select appropriate alternative for minimizing the loss and impact of emergencies.However,the complexity and uncertainty of emergency events as well as the fuzziness of human cognitive often lead to fuzzy uncertainty of decision-makers in the process of decision-making knowledge,which brings great obstacles to the accuracy and scientificity of emergency decision-making.Therefore,how to effectively organize the fuzzy uncertainty emergency decision knowledge,and integrate it into comprehensive knowledge by scientific methods,so as to obtain the comprehensive knowledge needed for solving decision problems,has important theoretical significance and application value for improving the emergency decision-making.In order to deal more scientifically with the decision knowledge with fuzzy uncertainty in emergency decision-making,this paper focused on the knowledge fusion method based on system engineering and eognitive science.The main works are as follows:(1)The decision knowledge in dealing with emergency events is analyzed by using the thought of system engineering,and the internal and external factors of the uncertainty of emergency-decision-making are sorted out.Based on the knowledge-unit model,the emergency decision knowledge model is proposed to support the organization of decision knowledge with fuzzy un-certainty.Meanwhile,the key technologies of knowledge acquisition and knowledge fusion are discussed,and a knowledge fusion framework for fuzzy uncertain emergency decision knowl-edge is built.(2)With the gradual deepening of human cognition of emergency events,the complex un-certainty of emergency decision-making is gradually weakened,which affects the change of the fuzzy uncertainty of emergency decision-making knowledge described by decision-makers.This paper focused on the fusion methods of emergency decision knowledge with different fuzzy un-certainties.Firstly,aiming at the emergency decision-making problem with the extremely com-plex uncertainty,the knowledge fusion method based on intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic model is discussed.In this method,a transformed function was introduced to manage the intuitionistic linguistic terms with different granularities,and weigh integration model was designed based on projection theory.Then the feasibility of the fusion method is verified and analyzed by an exam-ple of decision-making knowledge fusion for coal mine flood response.Second,aiming at the emergency decision-making problem with the higher complex uncertainty,the knowledge fusion method based on multi-granularity fuzzy linguistic term is studied.In this method,the semantic distance entropy was introduced into calculate the fusion weight.Meanwhile,a novel evaluation approach of uncertainty weight relation considering the difference of knowledge measure was proposed.Then a knowledge fusion method was proposed,and the accuracy and rationality of fusion method were verified by an example of knowledge fusion for subway fire evacuation.Finally,aiming at the emergency decision-making problem with the lower complex uncertainty,the fusion method based on 2-tuple linguistic term is studied.Taking advantages of grey relation analysis,a weight calculation method was proposed,and the advantages are illustrated by an example.Further,the fusion method was introduced by considering the measure difference and the grey relation analysis of knowledge,and the scientific of the proposed method was illustrated by the example of knowledge fusion for decision-making of post-disaster in earthquake-induced dammed lake.(3)The application of this research method in emergency decision-making of social public security is discussed.Relying on the background of project research and social public security emergency decision-making,and taking knowledge fusion in dealing with group emergency as an application example,this paper expounds that the research of this paper has practical appli-cation value for knowledge fusion in social public security emergency decision-making,and has important significance for improving the emergency decision-making.